So many attempts have been made to solve the Palestinian problem that there can be no high expectations of the latest moves. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat rejected the last US-brokered peace plan under former Israeli premier Ehud Barak, although it met most Palestinian aspirations. The contentious issue of sovereignty over Arab East Jerusalem and the dismantling of all Jewish settlements helped to derail the talks.
It is hard to foresee a happier outcome this time, after Palestinian gunmen assassinated far-right Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi yesterday and with hawkish Prime Minister Ariel Sharon leading the Israeli delegation. His vision of a Palestinian state smacks more of a people hemmed in with hoops of steel than an independent nation.
But the focus of world opinion has shifted somewhat since September 11. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has openly acknowledged shortcomings in Western policy towards the Middle East, which led to festering resentment among Arab nations.
Concerns that the war against terrorism could be seen among Arab nations as a war against Islam have strengthened calls for greater balance in Middle East policy. Mr Sharon could find himself pressed into returning to the Barak proposals as a basis for negotiations, but if so his challenge will be to keep his coalition government united. Far-right parties in the Knesset have already threatened to resign over recent concessions. The Israeli leadership remains convinced that Mr Arafat sanctions the violence and has the power to stop it.
Hostility between the two men might lessen if talks proceed as suggested by former US senator George Mitchell, with a halt to violence and a series of confidence-building measures. Among these is a freeze on Jewish settlement building. But under the Geneva Convention and UN Security Council resolutions, the settlements are illegal. Palestinians will seize on their reinforced bargaining power. Mr Arafat is not likely to accept a plan under which they are permitted to remain.