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SCMP Reporter

For Hsu Su-chien, who runs a trading firm in Taipei, the elections offer a glimmer of hope that cross-strait relations might be improving.

'I hope the election will result in a legislature which promotes peaceful cross-strait relations,' she said. 'Stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential for the recovery of the economy.'

Ms Hsu, 49, is a second-generation 'mainlander' whose parents came to Taiwan after 1949, when the Kuomintang retreated to the island after it was defeated by the Chinese Communist Party.

The term 'mainlanders' is often considered to be discriminatory in Taiwan because it draws a line between them and locally-born Taiwanese who lived on the island before 1949.

It is generally believed that 'mainlanders' favour the idea that Taiwan and the mainland are parts of the same country.

Older 'mainlanders' are drawn towards China because of their family roots, but it is the mainland's growing economic prowess that is attracting the younger generation of 'mainlanders' and influencing where they stand on the cross-strait issue.

Young 'mainlanders' favour a stable relationship with the mainland, partly because it will help them do business with China.

But analysts from both sides of the Taiwan Strait say these young 'mainlanders' may be disappointed.

'The island's business sector is pushing the Government to improve relations, and the island's administration is adjusting its policies in that direction,' said Yang Jian, secretary-general of the Taiwan Studies Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

'But the pace of the thawing in relations has slowed down because of the dispute over the 'one-China' principle.'

Despite repeated overtures, criticism and threats from Beijing, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has refused to embrace the principle, insisting Taipei did not agree to it in 1992 as Chinese officials claim. Beijing, however, is adamant that acceptance of the principle is a prerequisite for the resumption of dialogue.

Semi-official cross-strait talks were held in Hong Kong in 1992. The mainland claimed a consensus was reached on a 'one-China' principle, but that this could be open to different interpretations. The Chen administration denies that any form of consensus was reached, although the Kuomintang, in power at the time, disputes this.

Professor Yang's opinion was echoed by Chang Ling-chen, a professor of political sciences with the National Taiwan University, who said the island's split over the 'one-China' principle would continue to stall the resumption of talks.

'The elections will not help sort out differences [between Beijing and Taipei], nor stop the war of words between the pro-independence and pro-unification camps,' Professor Chang said.

And Gao Heng, a research fellow with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, predicted there would be no fundamental changes in cross-strait relations during the next presidential election in 2004.

'On the economic front, things are moving really fast, but on the political front, little is going to happen,' he said.



Vote likely to disappoint those hoping for cross-strait thaw