Population prediction 'too high due to fertility rate blunder'

Officials may have over-estimated the SAR's population growth by 650,000 in projections for 2029, raising questions over the projections' validity for long-term public planning.

One academic warned that failure to ensure the accuracy of the projections - used to forecast requirements in areas such as housing, hospitals and schools - could be disastrous.

According to a Hong Kong University report, the SAR's population would reach only 8.4 million by 2029, compared to the official forecast of 9.05 million.

The study by senior lecturer in statistics Dr Paul Yip Siu-fai and his colleague Joseph Lee Man-kong, a former deputy commissioner for Census and Statistics, concluded officials had over-estimated future fertility rates. Dr Yip said that although last year's baby boom was in line with government predictions, he thought it would prove to be a one-off. The increase was attributed to parents who wanted children born in the year of the dragon and the supposedly auspicious year 2000.

Fertility rate refers to the average number of children each woman will have. The Census and Statistics Department forecast the fertility rate would reach 1.6 by 2029, after rising from an historical low of 0.974 in 1999 to 1.024 last year.

But the university team said the rate would only reach about 1.2 over the next three decades.

Dr Yip predicted the SAR fertility rate might even drop, due to the increasing number of single men and women. His colleague, Professor Cecilia Chan Lai-wan, dean of the university's faculty of social sciences, warned flawed predictions could cause 'planning disasters'.