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Wang Xiangwei

The upset victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in yesterday's legislative elections is expected to trigger realignments which will have dramatic effects on the political landscape.

President Chen Shui-bian is likely to emerge with a much stronger hand, boosting the DPP's chances of winning the next presidential election in 2004.

But with a stronger DPP and a weaker Kuomintang , the already frosty ties between Taipei and Beijing could be strained even further.

As expected, no single party emerged yesterday with a legislative majority. This means that the next few weeks will see frenzied horse-trading among the major political players.

But one thing appears certain: the DPP's strong performance will give Mr Chen a good chance of patching together a majority, with the help of the fledgling Taiwan Solidarity Union backed by former president Lee Teng-hui and rebel KMT legislators.

The KMT, which last year lost the presidency for the first time in more than 50 years, is likely to face further splits and defections.

KMT chairman Lien Chan could also come under increasing pressure to resign. If he is forced to stand down, it will mark the beginning of the end for the KMT.

But Mr Chen also faces problems. Even if he forms a majority, he will still have to deal with the worst economic slump in Taiwan for decades, and record unemployment.

Mr Chen, whose first 18 months in office were marred by inexperience and gaffes, will have to prove that he can do a better job in the next 2.5 years.

With a stronger mandate and a weaker KMT, which favours re-unification with the mainland, he is expected to continue his stalling tactics on the sensitive issue of the 'one-China principle'. Beijing has refused to deal with Mr Chen until he recognises the principle.

The mainland has held out hope that the 2004 poll will deliver a new leader, more willing to deal with Beijing on its terms.

But judging from yesterday's results, Beijing will have to think again.



Surprise result will shake up parties and test mainland ties