OUR CHIEF SECRETARY, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, has delivered himself of an economic prognosis that can be put to the historical test.
Hong Kong's economy would recover three months after the United States' economy recovers, he told a meeting of the Asia Society last week.
Right then, if Mr Tsang can be so firm about this three month lag relationship with the growth of the US economy you must expect that he observed it in the past.
See if you can pick it out from the first chart, which shows the quarterly year over year growth rates of both the Hong Kong and US economies since 1974.
Ahem, yes, exactly. Now let's try it another way. Compare Hong Kong's growth rate with the weighted average growth of comparable smaller Asian economies - those other than Japan and the mainland.
You have this in the second chart. A much closer fit, wouldn't you say? It is still not exact to any three month lag or lead but it certainly has been a very close match since 1997. So here is the great truth. Hong Kong lies in Asia, not the United States.
Let me give my own prognosis. Hong Kong will lead the US out of the present slowdown and will show positive real economic growth by the second quarter next year. Now this is a bit of flyer and the last time I ventured to be so bold as an investment strategist I went down in flames and so did my job.