HONGKONG'S economy will face frequent fluctuations and even a sharp downturn in the next few years because of incessant political wrangling between China and Britain, predicts a senior Bank of China official.
Wang Changyao, head of the research department of the Hongkong and Macau Office under the Bank of China, made the forecast in Hongkong and Macau Today.
Published just days after Britain and China agreed to step up co-operation on transitional matters during a visit by British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd to Beijing, the article warns of a bumpy transition.
Mr Wang said it was unlikely that ''somebody'' would tear up the Joint Declaration, impede China's reform drive and hand over a problem-plagued Hongkong to China after 1997.
But he foresaw, in the worst case, the possibility of social conflict intensifying and the economy being severely jeopardised.
He forecast that the rate of economic growth would fall below three per cent a year.
According to Mr Wang, it was ''very likely'' that there would be frequent ''ups and downs'', and sometimes slumps, in the Hongkong economy in the next few years in the face of frequent political disputes between China and Britain. Political confrontationmight escalate at times.
