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Christine Chan

China's exports surged 8.1 per cent last month compared with the same time last year, confounding fears the global slowdown would damage the country's trade with the rest of the world.

Exports grew to US$24 billion in November, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday, quoting custom figures. In October, exports increased 0.1 per cent compared with a year ago, while the comparable figure for September was 4.4 per cent.

Analysts had expected growth to be stagnant in the fourth quarter, following the September 11 terrorist attacks.

The increase has provided temporary relief for China's gloomy trade prospects in the face of the global economic slump. However, officials said the export sector would bear the full brunt of the faltering economies next year.

Officials had forecast full-year exports this year to show an increase of about 5 per cent.

However, exports grew 6.3 per cent to US$241.57 billion for the first 11 months.

Analysts described the surge as 'a pleasant surprise', saying monthly statistical fluctuations and the low comparative base for the same period last year would contribute to the monthly surge.

Nomura International senior economist Pu Yonghao said Beijing's policy support for exporters and the postponement of shipments to November following the September 11 attacks helped exports grow. Increased contributions from a more liberalised trading regime in the eastern provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, as well as Shanghai, also helped.

Last month, imports grew to US$20.94 billion.

In the first 11 months, imports reached US$221.2 billion, giving a trade surplus of US$20.37 billion.

HSBC China Services research manager Benny Chiu Ling-bun said the latest statistics suggested a marked improvement in the trade figures from earlier, thanks to the narrowing of export and import figures.

There have been concerns about a narrowing trade surplus at the end of the year because of imports growing stronger than exports.

Mr Chiu estimated this year's trade surplus would hit more than US$10 billion.



China trade worth US$24b defies trend