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Joon San

Wong Joon San

THE Europe, Far East and Pacific routes will displace the North Atlantic from its current position as the world's main cargo stream by the year 2005, according to an Airbus Industrie air cargo market report.

  The report predicts that the Asia-Pacific region will record the largest growth in the world at nine per cent per annum.

  ''The region will almost double its share of the world total,'' the report says, pointing out that six of the top 20 cargo airports are located in the Asia-Pacific region.

  The report said the cargo traffic growth at these airports between 1980 and 1989 ranged from 15 per cent per annum for Seoul, to 8.1 per cent for Melbourne, compared with only 4.1 per cent for New York, which was a world leader.

   Frankfurt recorded a 6.9 per cent growth over the same period.

  Based on International Air Transport Association (IATA) statistics, the report says the dominant air cargo flows were in the North Atlantic, Europe-Far East and the Pacific Rim, which, all together, accounted for 60 per cent of the world scheduled traffic in 1991.

  By the year 2005, total cargo traffic, including international and domestic, was expected to double to seven per cent per annum.

   International cargo traffic was forecast to grow at eight per cent per annum.

  The report says the well-established long-range markets between developed countries, mainly the North Atlantic market, recorded an average historical growth rate of between five and seven per cent.

  But in recent years, all three markets had experienced steady and above-average growth rates of between eight and 14 per cent.

  Mature markets were those with the highest tonnage concentrated on a limited number of gateways, while long-haul flows were complemented by inter-lined medium haul services.

  The report says new markets would require smaller unit loads, usually starting from belly-hold traffic and marginal costing for lower tariffs.

  There was a subsequent evolution towards intermediate capacity freighters and combi aircraft, it says.

  New developments were the specialised parcel and express sector, the report says, adding that the leading factors for this market was quality of service and speed.

  In order to have a worldwide presence, this segment looked for space in medium-sized freighters and passenger aircraft belly hold, it says.

  The report says the growth in the parcel and document express market was in response to deficiencies in the public mail and small parcel transportation system.

  Air freight revenue was a bonus on top of passenger revenues and accounted for between 20 to 30 per cent of overall turnover.

   It could mean the difference between profit or loss for an airline, says the report.

  The cargo traffic forecast to 2000 showed a constant annual increase of two per cent above the passenger traffic rate.

  This meant regional cargo traffic flows would more than double by 2000 to 7.8 per cent per annum, the report says.

  ''Air cargo traffic development looks very promising in some areas, especially in the Far East, where growth is expected to stay far above those for passenger traffic throughout the coming decade,'' the report says.

  It says that air cargo traffic growth was closely related to the world economy.

  The two fuel crisis, in 1973 and from 1978 to 1982, were followed by recession and a steep decline in world air cargo traffic.

  This changed in years of recovery or of strong growth, when air cargo transport tended to show robust development.

  ''This is likely to happen as soon as the leading world economies recover from the present downturn,'' the report says.

  The report says that air cargo growth would continue to rely on quality of service, speed and punctuality for high-value goods and urgent items.

     such as medicines or spare parts.

  Another stimulus for strong traffic growth was globalisation of developed economies which increased demand for just-in-time (JIT) deliveries.



Region set to lead world growth