The US$2.7 billion (HK$21 billion) that has been pledged towards the rebuilding of Afghanistan is a welcome first tranche of aid that will help the interim government to at least put in place some of the basic institutions of government. But it is important now to ensure two things: that the money that has been promised by donor countries is quickly paid out, and that fresh pledges are made once the international community is satisfied that the money has been well used.
It is often the case that donors make generous pledges at international conferences but fail to follow this up by actually paying out the money. It is important that at least a third of the amount promised so far is paid out in the course of the year. The United Nations has estimated that US$1.33 billion will be required by the Afghan interim Government in the coming year for basic tasks such as paying the salaries of government servants, immediate relief and reconstruction, and helping to reintegrate the large number of Afghan refugees in the region.
The UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, had hoped to win pledges of US$10 billion, the amount Afghanistan is estimated to require over the next five years. The US, European Union, Japan and Saudi Arabia, who are expected to share the bulk of the cost of rebuilding Afghanistan, have indicated they wish to see how these initial pledges are spent before providing any more money. This is entirely sensible, and will be a major incentive to Hamid Karzai's Government to attack waste and corruption.
There is a danger, though, that in six months to a year from now, when Afghanistan will require fresh sums of money, the donor countries will drag their feet. By then, Afghanistan will probably have receded somewhat from the public eye and donor fatigue might have begun to afflict those who have been promising money.
The United Nations, the lead agency in Afghanistan's reconstruction, must take it upon itself to ensure that this issue remains in the public eye and that wealthy nations continue to feel obliged to donate aid.
Otherwise Afghanistan risks sliding back into the middle ages and again becoming a breeding ground for fundamentalist violence. The world must not let go of this opportunity to turn Afghanistan into a peaceful, prosperous, modern nation.
