CHINA'S Ministry of Finance yesterday expressed confidence that its 30 billion yuan (officially about HK$40.5 billion) treasury bond issue would be a success, despite being more than 10 billion yuan under-subscribed two days before its self-imposed sales deadline of July 15. ''It now seems the issue will be fully subscribed to,'' said an official from the ministry's internal debt department. However, the official refused to specify how many bonds had been sold or when the issue was expected to be sold out. ''We are still in the process of calculation. An announcement will be made in a few days,'' he said. Many state-run enterprises had pledged to provide the necessary cash for their bonds by July 15, the official said, and it now appeared as if they had miraculously come up with the money. The official People's Daily newspaper reported yesterday that there had been a sudden rush to buy bonds in the last few days before the deadline, with the Beijing Municipal Securities Co selling 1993 bonds worth more than 400,000 yuan in one morning thisweek. Many financial analysts were sceptical about the ministry's new-found optimism about the issue. ''I think they were embarrassed by the disclosure that they were 10 billion yuan short and have decided to put a positive spin on things,'' a Western economist in Beijing said yesterday. ''Even if there has been a massive late rally, that does not alter the fact that generally speaking this issue has been a complete flop,'' he added.