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Doom-laden forecasts proved wrong by US economy's rally

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SCMP Reporter

For the global economy, the oft-repeated line that the world is a very different place from September 10 could just as easily apply to September 12.

Forecasts in the days following the terrorist attacks largely predicted that world economies would be thrown into a slump unparalleled since the 1970s, if not the 1930s.

US consumers, who account for two-thirds of economic activity, have helped rally the troubled nation. While bracing for the worst, analysts have been repeatedly surprised.

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'They should be surprised, let's face it. Everyone expected the US economy to tank [slump] more considerably than it did and now we're seeing that the US consumer is much stronger than we'd thought and pulling the economy out . . . much faster than expected,' said Markus Krygier, head of strategy at Credit Agricole Asset Management.

While Hong Kong's economic condition has been deteriorating, US figures this year have almost uniformly caught analysts napping, as bearish forecasts were proved wrong time and again.

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On Friday, they were stumped again when the Department of Labour announced unemployment had unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since October.

Aggressive easing moves by the Federal Reserve and sometimes other central banks certainly played a part in sustaining the spending ways both prior to and after September 11.

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