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Zhu Rongji

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SCMP Reporter

Premier Zhu Rongji used what is likely to be his last major press conference in office to set out his legacy to China's reform process. Mr Zhu made a series of promises when he took up office four years ago. Yesterday, he declared that he had basically fulfilled the pledges he had made.

But despite Mr Zhu's achievements in pushing forward reforms and leading the fight against corruption, there are still huge problem areas which his successor will have to tackle if China is to successfully make the transition to a modern economy.

The reform of the state-owned enterprises, unemployment, the modernisation of China's banking system and its agriculture are ominous clouds hanging over its future.

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As the impact of China's WTO entry begins to be felt, more and more industries are likely to be forced to shut. In the absence of a comprehensive social security system, workers will be left on the streets, feeling angry and cheated.

Unrest in the countryside is another real danger. As Mr Zhu admitted, the one single issue that caused him the greatest headache was finding a way to increase farm incomes. As cheap produce from the US and other grain exporting nations flood into China with the lifting of barriers under the WTO, rural incomes are expected to fall, and distress in the countryside could increase. The combination of urban and rural unrest will make an explosive cocktail. The only way to dampen dissatisfaction is through continued rapid economic growth. But this will require pushing ahead with economic reform at even greater speed.

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Mr Zhu will be remembered as a vigorous, no nonsense reformer who laid the groundwork for China's modernisation and entry into the WTO. But it is important that his efforts do not flag during his remaining year in office, and that his successor shares his drive and determination.

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