Forecasters predict more rain, fewer typhoons due to El Nino

Hong Kong will have more rain than average but fewer typhoons this year under the influence of the El Nino weather phenomenon, the Observatory predicted yesterday.

Five or six typhoons will be likely instead of the typical six or seven. 'Indications are that a weak El Nino event may emerge later this year. We predict there may be one fewer typhoon than usual, but also more rain than average,' Observatory director Lam Hung-kwan said.

The annual average rainfall is 2,214.3mm. Mr Lam did not give a specific rainfall prediction, saying only it would be more than average but less than last year's 3,091.8mm.

El Nino arises every two to four years because of a rise in sea temperature off the coasts of Peru, which creates a knock-on effect on the global weather system. It generally reverses weather conditions, bringing heavy rain to dry places and dry weather to ordinarily wet locations.

Sea temperature is believed to have risen 0.5 degrees Celsius off Peru this year. In 1997, a 'super El Nino' raised sea temperatures by up to four degrees, bringing a string of weather disasters.