AS the complex wheeling and dealing which will eventually produce a new Japanese government gets underway, there are only two certainties.
First, the process is bound to be protracted. Japanese consensus building of any kind is always slow. But an additional complication is the start tomorrow of the trial of former Liberal Democratic Party kingpin Shin Kanemaru on charges of massive tax evasion.
Damaging details are expected to emerge during the trial, discrediting other leading LDP figures. In these circumstances, none of the opposition parties which might consider alliance with the LDP are likely to give any sign of interest, let alone make a commitment.
This might give the edge to the eight opposition parties in their coalition-building, except for the fact that the main potential architect on the opposition side, Shinseito leader Ichiro Ozawa could, as a former Kanemaru protege, also be affected by thetrial's disclosures.
The second certainty is that while the ''smoke-filled back rooms'' are bound to see a lot of the action, the political manoeuvring will be more open than ever before.
The greater use by politicians of television talk shows, and television's inclination to put on lengthy political specials, are two of the ways in which Japanese politicians are being more open about their views.