The election in France today of a new president will take place surrounded by one of the most highly charged European plebiscites in recent times. Certainly it is a long while since so much international attention has been focused on a French presidential election. The irony is that the result is actually a foregone conclusion: the incumbent, Jacques Chirac, is almost certain to resoundingly defeat his far-right opponent, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
But Mr Chirac - dogged by financial scandal for several years - is hardly the popular choice. In fact his greatest asset is his opponent, Mr Le Pen. For so many of the French electorate, the so-called middle ground voters, Mr Le Pen is anathema to modern civilised values and a national disgrace.
However, while Mr Le Pen may well be a racist, many of those who support him would almost certainly not consider themselves to be so. Instead they simply seek strong leadership in uncertain times that puts their country and own people's interests first. The consequence of these wishes has been the unleashing of a profoundly repugnant genie.
On May 1 an estimated one million people in France took to the streets to protest against the policies of Mr Le Pen and to urge people to vote for Mr Chirac. Opinion polls predict Mr Chirac will today capture some 80 per cent of the vote. The result will be less of a victory for Mr Chirac, however, and more of a defeat for Mr Le Pen.
Why then, it is fair to ask, if Mr Le Pen is so unpopular, has he reached the position of being in a head to head with Mr Chirac for the presidency? The answer, which carries a significance far beyond the borders of France, is simple complacency and the fragmentary nature of the opposition. These enabled Mr Le Pen to gain second place with under 17 per cent of the vote.
Despite Mr Le Pen's undeniable appeal to a seam of profoundly discontented people in France, low voter turnout in the first round of elections was the main reason for his success. Fear of the reality of putting such a man in power will undoubtedly ensure proportionally high turnout today.
