WHAT are the odds now on the Hang Seng Index hitting 8,000 in the near term? Long indeed, after a week in which the market barometer tumbled another 175 points to finish Friday at 6,750.33.
The Hang Seng Index of blue chips has fallen 697 points or 9.36 per cent from its record closing price of 7,447.24 on May 27.
Red chips have taken the brunt of selling pressure with Dao Heng's Red-Chip Index down 16.6 per cent from its high point.
Earlier in the summer, with the market leaping ahead almost 100 points every day, it seemed only a matter of a week or two before the 8,000 prediction of Hongkong and Macau Affairs Office head Lu Ping proved correct.
Mr Lu's reputation as a market forecaster is saved by the caveat that his 8,000 target depended on Sino-British talks being successful.
Since then the talks on Governor Chris Patten's reform proposals have been through more rounds than most boxing bouts, with still no end in sight. The ninth round opens mid-August.
Coincidentally, after Mr Lu's forecast, the index stood at exactly the same level as today. The difference is then the market was responding only to positive signals; today, it is negative news that drives the index.