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No time for brinkmanship

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SCMP Reporter

The decision by the United Nations to pull out the families of its staff from India and Pakistan is further evidence - if any were really needed - that time is running out if large-scale conflict between these two nuclear powers is to be avoided.

The UN's decision follows similar actions by Britain, the United States and France to withdraw non-essential diplomatic staff from both countries and to warn their citizens of the dangers of travel to the area.

The real threat is now not so much that India and Pakistan have mobilised around a million troops, who are sitting facing each other along the Line of Control in Kashmir and exchange fire daily, but the fact that each country - and India in particular - has backed itself into a corner.

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The longer the sabre-rattling, posturing and belligerent public dialogue continues, the more likely it is that one side - most likely India - will be goaded into action.

Clearly, this is a war that neither country wants. Any large-scale conflict would be disastrous for either side.

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The problem is that Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee - understandably responding to fervent domestic pressure following a series of terrorist attacks - has already laid out all his military options. The only military action now available to him is to order his troops to attack. And even a limited operation into Pakistan-controlled territory is likely to spark a conflict that will rapidly be impossible to contain.

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