'HOW MANY MORE days can Lai Changxing hold out?' So screamed the headline in one of China's most popular newspapers last week in a story from Vancouver that reported the failure of the mainland's most wanted fugitive and alleged smuggling king to obtain political asylum in Canada. His return to China was imminent, the paper warned. 'Justice is without mercy and Lai's extradition to China is just a matter of time,' it said. Beijing accuses Lai of being the biggest smuggler in China's history. It says that he and the Yuan Hua group he headed in Xiamen, Fujian province, smuggled about 50 billion yuan (HK$47 billion) of luxury goods, cars, oil, petrochemicals, electronics, steel, construction materials and other items into China in the mid-1990s, evading taxes totalling 30 billion yuan. It has put more than 300 suspects it says were involved with Lai on trial and sentenced 14 to death, including provincial officials and a former vice-minister of public security, Li Jizhou. Yet one of Lai's lawyers, Darryl Larson, says that extradition - if it happens at all - is years away. 'The politicians talk a big talk but cannot control the legal system,' he said by telephone from Vancouver. '[Prime Minister Jean] Chretien is cozying up to China, which is in the World Trade Organisation, but the appeal process is lengthy and could take up to four years, including the Supreme Court of Canada. 'Lai believes that, if he goes back, he will be toast. He does not believe the Chinese assurance that he would not be executed. Nobody believes it, except for the two people on the immigration panel.' Last Friday Lai's lawyers appealed to the Federal Court against the decision of the two-man immigration panel to refuse his application for political asylum, an appeal that could take between three and 12 months. If that fails, they can go to the Federal Court of Appeal and finally the Supreme Court. The case has been unprecedented in Canada. The hearing of the immigration panel on Lai's application lasted nearly six months, the longest in Canadian history, and involved thousands of documents and dozens of witnesses. The judgment issued by the panel on June 21 was 294 pages long. The case saw unprecedented co-operation between the Canadian and Chinese police and prosecutors, who sent officers to testify and present video testimony from those in China who were interrogated in the Lai case. The two governments stand together in opposing the application, with the Canadian government providing evidence against Lai. Beijing has devoted so many resources to the battle against Lai principally because Premier Zhu Rongji has a close personal interest in the case. He has said that Lai deserves to be executed three times on the grounds of his evasion of tax, the damage his racket did to legitimate businesses and his establishment of a vast network of corruption. As well as pursuing legal channels, Beijing also sent agents to Vancouver to trail Lai once it discovered where he was. He arrived on August 14, 1999, with his wife and three children. Four months later he bought a luxury villa for C$1.3 million (HK$6.7 million). Fearful of assassination by these secret agents, Lai rarely went out, except to casinos where he bet heavily. On one occasion, Beijing sent to Vancouver agents with Lai's brother who had been arrested in connection with the smuggling case. They met Lai in a hotel room and tried to persuade him to come home, with the promise of more lenient treatment for his family members. Lai refused. In July 2000, Lai and his wife made their application for political asylum. Later that year he was arrested near a casino in Niagara Falls, on the other side of Canada, which he had visited more than 30 times, for a violation of immigration law. Under an agreement with the police, he was allowed to leave custody and - after selling the luxury villa for C$990,000 - stay in a 150-square-metre apartment in Vancouver that he bought. He was placed under a form of house arrest which continues today. The apartment is equipped with surveillance cameras and Lai and his wife are only allowed to go out for a few hours each day, to hospital, to legal hearings or the office of their lawyers. Lai pays C$80,000 a month for the cost of those monitoring him, including Chinese-speaking guards on duty 24 hours a day. He and his wife have surrendered their passport to the authorities and are not allowed to have mobile telephones. Lai and his lawyer held a news conference after the denial of his application. He let his lawyer do most of the talking and sat downcast, his face expressionless. When he was asked how he felt, he suddenly said in a loud voice: 'I have always believed in my innocence, I will appeal.' He was then taken away by police who went to his apartment to search for documents in connection with possible money-laundering. Fearful that she and her husband would be deported immediately to China, Lai's wife disappeared after the denial, leaving their three children at home. She only gave herself up to police after 7pm that day. Police released Lai last Friday and he returned to his apartment. However anxious Beijing is to get Lai back, it can only wait for the lengthy legal process to be completed. Because it has no extradition agreement with Canada, it sent a letter promising that it would not execute Lai were he sent back. In August 2000, Canada reportedly sent back a Chinese citizen accused of murder who had been on the run for 14 years. It is believed to be the first time that a Western country has returned to China a man wanted for murder. It is not clear what happened to the fugitive on his return. Lai is believed still to have a substantial amount of money, which he needs to pay legal costs of up to C$300 an hour as well as the cost of an interpreter - up to C$150 an hour. Were his money to run out, he would be eligible to apply for legal aid. Tuition for his three children at a private school in Vancouver costs C$6,500 a year. Could he flee to a third country, which he would have to do illegally since he has surrendered his passport? The possibility was dismissed as 'ludicrous' by Mr Larson. 'Other countries do not have so many safeguards as Canada.' China had so much diplomatic and political muscle in the world that it could force the governments of many countries to hand Lai over if he chose to go there, he added. 'His best bet is to abide by Canadian law. Whatever the outcome, he would be resigned to that.' Mark O'Neill is a member of the Post's Beijing bureau
