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SCMP Reporter

ANALYSTS' forecasts of blue-chip earnings growth this year remain bullish, according to Estimate Directory figures for the first half of the year.

  The table shows the net profit results recorded in 1992, a forecast for 1993 and 1994 along with a figure giving the percentage change in 1993 forecasts for each of the companies between the end of the first quarter and the end of the second quarter.

  With the exception of two cases, the market consensus for the 1993 earnings figure has risen.

  The exceptions, where analysts downgraded their forecasts, were China Light and Power and Cathay Pacific.

  ''The adjustment in the China Light and Power figure might just be brokers fine-tuning their numbers as the year progresses.

  ''In the case of Cathay, the numbers are down because of a fundamental worsening in the earnings outlook for the company,'' said an analyst with a British brokerage.

  Overall, the average upward adjustment was above 15 per cent. Those companies receiving the greatest attention were HSBC Holdings, Hysan Development, Hutchison Whampoa and Television Broadcasts.

  Looking further out, the prospective price-earnings ratios in 1994 for many of the blue chips look encouraging, but there are some special situations in a number of the single-digit PEs that should cause investors to pause before investing.

  For instance, Hopewell Holdings looks relatively attractive from a valuation point of view and the yield is also respectable.

   But the poor quality of earnings and the lack of information about the group's road-building activity in China place a large question mark over the company's earnings outlook.

  It also has to be remembered that these figures are based on analysts' calculations in the first half, given the information available at the time.

  The numbers do not reflect expectations for a downturn in earnings for some of the stocks on the back of the expected slowdown in China's economy.

  In this respect, these figures have to be treated with extreme caution.

   For many of the property developers, earnings for 1993 will already be booked, the banks are living off the earnings from wide margins on lending, and the utilities have a captive market.

  But there are a number of operations run by some of the conglomerates with increasing exposure to China which probably will see increasing negative sentiment towards their earnings outlook.

  HSBC saw its net profit figure upgraded significantly because of the better-than-expected 1992 year-end figures, and the failure of many analysts to take full account of the liquidity explosion that occurred in Hongkong during 1992.

   The wide margins on lending amid the flood of cash allowed the banks to make hay last year.

  Analysts are hoping HSBC's earnings will receive a further boost from the long-awaited recovery of Midland Bank in Britain.

  At Hutchison Whampoa, 1992 was group chairman Li Ka-shing's own annus horribilus as the group turned in a $78 million loss at the interim stage and earnings were five per cent down at the year-end.

  Although uncertainty about the profitability of the British telecommunications operations remains, analysts feel the company is through the worst.

  The recent sale of the controlling stake in Star Television to News Corp will probably add renewed momentum to the upward re-rating of Hutchison's net profit forecasts.

  With the economic situation in China continuing to darken, investors must read with great care the interim reports of these companies as they come out during August and September.

  Again, the profit and loss figures will only reflect activities in the first half, before the mainland clampdown on economic growth, but the statements from the companies will give an early indication of expectations of directors.

  Earnings has become a little weather-worn as a factor driving the stock market.

  Sino-British relations and economic developments in China will have a bigger medium-term bearing on where the Hang Seng Index will go in the future.



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HSBC

Analysts remain bullish on blue chips