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SCMP Reporter

HONG Kong restaurant and nightlife guru Dick Kaufman was yesterday predicting a ''great leap forward'' for the local entertainment industry in the run-up to 1997.

  Meanwhile, frustrated businessman Calvin Craig was claiming Lan Kwai Fong would become a ''ghost town'' within three years thanks to excessive rent increases.

  So who will be right? Their predictions for Hong Kong's prime pub and club area could not be more different.

  Many property analysts and bar and restaurant bosses yesterday dismissed Mr Craig's comments as somewhat over the top, yet his argument does have some foundation.

  A string of Lan Kwai Fong night spots have already closed and more look set to follow.

  Earlier this week, Mr Craig and his five partners announced they would move out of their bar, Scotties, and into cheaper premises in Sai Kung after being threatened with a 50 per cent rent rise on their two-year lease.

  It is becoming an all too familiar tale. Brown Sugar and Ma Maison have already shut this year in Lan Kwai Fong and it is rumoured others could soon follow.

  But for every establishment closing there are said to be even more queuing up to move in.

  US fast food chain McDonald's is due to open in Lan Kwai Fong this week and an influx of restaurant operators is said to be waiting in the wings.

  ''Your neighbourhood has arrived when McDonald's moves in,'' argued Mr Kaufman, the man who helped transform Lan Kwai Fong from a collection of run-down backstreet buildings into Hong Kong's number one night spot.

  ''Those guys don't make mistakes. They wouldn't be opening up if they thought Lan Kwai Fong's popularity was fading.''   The arrival of McDonald's illustrates how the face of Lan Kwai Fong is changing. In the old days Lan Kwai Fong was exclusive. Now it is far more mass market.

  Operators of smaller alternative bars and restaurants charging slightly less for drinks tend to be those moving out, while more up-market restaurants and wine bars are moving in.

  ''There is a huge boom in up-scale eating and entertainment establishments in Hong Kong,'' said Mr Kaufman, an entertainment industry consultant for the whole of Hong Kong.

  ''The entertainment industry is about to take another huge leap forward in the run-up to 1997.

  ''Hong Kong people work hard and are now finding they can afford to play hard.

  ''If a place turns sour the first person operators tend to blame is their landlord,'' said Mr Kaufman.

  ''I don't buy the argument that rents are being jacked up out of proportion.''   Huge annual rent rises tended to be the exception rather than the rule in Lan Kwai Fong, said Sebastion Skiff, Jones Lang Wootton's retail property department manager.

  Average rents had increased pretty much in line with inflation over the past three years despite the serious lack of space in Central, he said.

  Supatra's Thai Restaurant in D'Aguilar Street is one of the unlucky ones. Owner Supatra Faber has just been presented with a 90 per cent rent rise by her landlord and she said it was far more than she could afford without pumping up her prices beyond herregular customers' reach.

  She has decided to switch premises in Lan Kwai Fong rather than pay up and risk going under.

  ''If I put up my prices 90 per cent so as to be able to pay my rent it would be like working for the landlord,'' she said.

   ''Business in Lan Kwai Fong is not good enough for that. It's busier in Wan Chai and Tsim Sha Tsui these days.''   Operators elsewhere in Hong Kong seem to be suffering similar problems. Luciana Hubert, who runs La Boheme restaurant in Wan Chai, has just had a 45 per cent rent rise on her lease.

  Unlike Mrs Faber, she is staying put, but said: ''For us it is difficult to put up our prices. Customers in Central will accept price rises, but not in Wan Chai.

  ''They don't understand. They think Wan Chai is a cheap place.

  ''The Government should do something. It should set a maximum landlords can increase rents.'' 



Champagne for some, last orders for others as rents soar