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Patsy Moy

Hong Kong will have one of the fastest growing elderly populations in Asia by 2025, according to United Nations forecasts.

Deputy Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Patrick Nip Tak-kuen said the ageing population was one of the government's key concerns and that officials were exploring long-term financial arrangements for elderly care and services in Hong Kong.

According to last month's UN forecast of 28 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the number of people in Hong Kong aged 60 and over will double from 14.3 per cent of the population in 2000 to 28.2 per cent by 2025.

The government's projections are similar, with those aged 60 and over expected to reach 28.1 per cent of the population by 2025, and 31.1 per cent in 2031.

Japan will top the Asia-Pacific list, with 35.1 per cent of people aged 60 and over in 2025, followed by Singapore, Macau, and Hong Kong.

The SAR's elderly population is tipped to jump further to 35.4 per cent by 2050 - which means almost one in every three people will be elderly, according to the UN report.

'In 2000, the population aged 60 and over in the Asia-Pacific region was estimated at 327 million, or 9 per cent of the region's total population. By 2050, the population of older persons will exceed one billion, accounting for 23 per cent of the total population of the region,' it said.

'The most notable trends are the tremendous changes in the proportion and absolute numbers of older persons.'

Dr Paul Yip Siu-fai, a senior lecturer of the department of statistics and actuarial science at the University of Hong Kong, said the growing portion of elderly people was due to both an increase in life expectancy and lower fertility rates.

According to the government's census and statistics forecast, the life expectancy of men in Hong Kong will be extended to an average of 82.3 in 2031, from 78.4 last year.

The average life expectancy of women is expected to rise to 87.8 in the same period, up from 84.6 last year.

But there might not be enough young people to take care of the aged as Hong Kong's fertility rate is the world's lowest, having steadily fallen from a high of 3.41 children per woman in 1971 to 0.927 last year, Dr Yip said.

The government predicts the fertility rate will climb to 1.1 by 2010 and will remain steady until 2031.

But Dr Yip said the government had become 'over optimistic' about the birth rate in Hong Kong.

He warned that it would remain low and possibly drop even further in the next few years, remaining at about one child per woman in the long term.

'The government has to think very hard in terms of support for elderly people since there will be a lot of elderly people who will retire without enough savings to support their livelihood,' Dr Yip said.

The head of the Hong Kong Council of Social Service's elderly services division, Carmen Ng Ka-man, said the government needed to map out a comprehensive policy for elderly people soon, such as a financial plan for long-term care which, she said, would involve a hefty budget.

Rita Lam Yu-kiu, chairwoman of the Association for the Rights of the Elderly, said the government should appoint more elderly people to its advisory bodies to give them more say.

Graphic: OLD21GET



Number of HK elderly to double by 2025