Exports were up 31.5 per cent year on year for October, while imports were up 33.4 per cent.

The healthy performance of China's key benchmark of factory activity, announced yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics, meant full-year GDP growth would probably top the official estimate of 7.8 per cent given last month, economists said.

That was already a sharp upward revision from the previous official target of seven per cent, and some economists are talking about the eight per cent target being within reach.

Fuelled by sales of cars and electronics, factory production totalled 283 billion yuan (HK$267 billion) last month, the bureau said on its Web site. This brings the total for the first 10 months of the year to 2.53 trillion yuan, 12.3 per cent more than the same period last year. The numbers follow output growth in September of 13.8 per cent.

Analysts were impressed. 'They're pretty good numbers,' said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. 'It's particularly impressive that, first, it happens in a month where we would have seven days off for public holidays, and second, there's a global weakening of demand.'

'It certainly looks very impressive,' said Jon Anderson, executive director of Asia-Pacific research at Goldman Sachs.

'It's above expectations. It certainly will make us think very hard about what China's growth outlook will be,' he said.

Dick Li, who is also an economist at Goldman, said the 14.2 per cent increase meant fourth-quarter GDP growth 'will likely be above 8.5 per cent', and probably more than eight per cent for the full year.

China's GDP grew 7.9 per cent in the first nine months of the year and 8.1 per cent in the third quarter, powered by exports, which saw year-on-year growth of between 25 and 33 per cent in July, August and September.

The statistics bureau last month raised its forecast for full-year growth to 7.8 per cent from seven per cent.

Cars, chemicals and electronics drove October's output surge and accounted for about 39 per cent of growth. The bureau said 319,000 cars were made last month, 54 per cent more than in October last year. 'Car sales are the hot spot of local consumption,' Mr Tao said.

The car market is seeing explosive growth as foreign manufacturers set up joint ventures to satisfy surging demand.

Nearly all the world's major car makers now have joint ventures in the mainland, with General Motors, Toyota and BMW the latest entrants.

The production of electronic devices also raced ahead, as factories made 36 per cent more circuit boards and 66 per cent more mobile phones.

The numbers highlight the growing foreign investment into the mainland from foreign companies keen to take advantage of low costs and a large labour pool. Production at foreign-owned factories, including those by investors from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, rose 14.8 per cent.

That figure was matched by production from publicly traded companies, which rose more than 16 per cent last month.

Demand from other countries for goods made in China remained strong, economists said.

'We think this acceleration continues to reflect robust exports and investment activities,' said Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

FACT12GET