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Koizumi's plan for an early general election is doomed

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As Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi braces for a winter of discontent, stark divisions are emerging in the ruling party over the timing of an election.

Mr Koizumi, who came to power in April last year, has never led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) into a general election and desperately feels the need to get a popular mandate.

Mr Koizumi may have been cursed by a shrinking economy but he acknowledges that he has been blessed by a weak opposition. This is something he wants to capitalise on before the economy's fall eventually galvanises even the opposition.

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He also wants to fend off a possible challenge from Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara by calling an election at least a year before its due date in July 2004. This would deny the nationalist Mr Ishihara a year of pre-poll publicity.

'The prime minister seems to take delight in political 'situations',' said former LDP secretary-general Hiromu Nonaka. 'I would not be surprised if he dissolved the lower house.'

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The hint of such an action would not go down well with the party's old guard, who remain deeply hostile to Mr Koizumi.

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