Smooth handover leaves future succession unclear

Six senior members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo graciously bowed out to make room for a younger generation of leaders at the 16th party congress this month. But although it was hailed as the first smooth transfer of power in the Communist Party's history, the handover leaves future leadership succession an open issue.

The orderly transition planned by Deng Xiaoping in 1989 brought China 13 years of political stability and an investment-friendly environment. With a mechanism for future succession unclear, the next few years are going to be fraught with a higher degree of political risk than the past decade.

Institutionalising the succession had been an ongoing process, said Chen Shu, a professor of party history at the Central Party School. The 'rule of law' which the party adopted at the 15th party congress in 1997 after Deng's death effectively ended the era of charismatic leadership. The same congress also disqualified leaders from seeking a new term in office after they reach 70.

Thanks to Deng's strategic vision, which was endorsed by other party elders, the collective leadership was formed first around Jiang Zemin and now around Hu Jintao as first among equals.

Their ascension to the top was endorsed by party elders. Mr Jiang had been under Deng's tutelage and Mr Hu had served on the Standing Committee. Over a decade, Mr Hu showed his mettle in his handling of issues like Taiwan and the Belgrade embassy bombing. He also had frequent contact with the military as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, Professor Chen said.

'Political succession has been of critical concern to leaders since the 1950s,' he said. The power transition in Russia after Joseph Stalin died galvanised China's leaders to face the problem.