EXPORT grew 19 per cent in the first five months of this year from the same period last year, according to new statistics released yesterday - but the momentum shows signs of slackening. Export growth in June plunged to 6.6 per cent, the lowest level in more than five years, and further sluggish growth has been predicted for the rest of the year. The Census and Statistics Department has adjusted its export growth figure for May upwards from 11.1 per cent to 12 per cent over May last year, but the revised figure is viewed as worryingly low by Hong Kong standards. Schroders Securities analyst Stella Fung said: ''The trade performance was disappointing in June and the outlook is also pessimistic given the slow economic recovery in the US, weak economies in Europe and the austerity measures implemented by the Chinese Government to curb import growth. ''Since import-export trade remains the largest contributor to economic growth, notwithstanding rapid expansion in the financial services sector, the slowdown in trade will have a significant impact on the territory's real gross domestic product growth.'' However, buoyant domestic demand would help underpin economic growth and easing inflation should help boost consumption, Ms Fung said. Over the first five months of 1993, the volume of domestic exports actually fell 1.6 per cent compared with the same period last year, while re-exports jumped 24 per cent. Meanwhile, imports rose 18 per cent over the five-month period. The new figures showed a substantial increase in the volume of exports of electronic components, up 11 per cent on the previous year. Re-exports of fuels and capital goods grew substantially, by 91 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively. But there were many considerable drops. Exports of radios fell 44 per cent; clothes and related articles 30 per cent; travel goods, handbags and similar articles 27 per cent; watches and clocks 26 per cent; and textile yarn and thread 25 per cent. Analysts attributed many of the falls to the continuing recession in some of Hong Kong's key export markets, including Germany and France. However, the expected pick-up in the United States economy could spur growth in the second half. The new statistics unmasked one or two interesting Hong Kong consumption trends. While there was a considerable increase in the import of cars and alcohol, there was a sizeable fall in tobacco imports. Also, while there was a large drop in meat imports, there was a considerable rise in the import volume of vegetables.
