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Junta's ties with Beijing evoke fear, but hope too

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Vaudine England

Myanmar's growing relationship with China, evidenced by this week's trip to Beijing by the military leadership, has the junta's wary neighbours torn between concern and guarded optimism about the impact of the link.

The concern is that China's firm support of the generals who reinstated military rule in 1988 gives the regime in Myanmar impunity on rights abuse charges, and access to economic benefits denied it elsewhere.

There is also curiosity about whether China will use its burgeoning relationship with Myanmar to suggest the regime adopt reforms to stave off social unrest.

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'Both China and Myanmar are very concerned about national stability, so the Chinese could be telling Myanmar to take steps to hold their country together. I would expect China not to be totally uncritical, and it would not be surprising if China could exert some influence, given that Myanmar is part of a growing net of Chinese assertive influence,' a Western diplomat said.

Another diplomat from a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Myanmar is a member, said he was sure Chinese concerns about stability on its southern flank would be aired privately this week in Beijing.

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Beyond this hope for pressure to be brought to bear on the junta, Myanmar's neighbours remain deeply interested in how the close relationship with China affects the region's strategic balance. Indian officials have watched the growing ties with concern. Previously distant from the generals, they are now pursuing closer engagement to counter Chinese influence so close to India's land and maritime borders.

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