When Japan talks, are its neighbours listening?
Japan continues to be the odd man out in Northeast Asia. While the other states in the region have been forging ties and building networks with each other - even North Korea - Japan has lagged behind.
Tokyo could be marginalised in its own neighbourhood. That risk has motivated Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's two foreign policy gambles of the last six months - his trips to Pyongyang and Russia. He has the right idea, but it is not enough to overcome the obstacles his country faces.
Northeast Asia's geopolitical landscape began to shift in the early 1990s when South Korea started building relations with China and Russia. For Seoul, this was part of a broad strategy to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula by ending Pyongyang's isolation: In theory, the establishment of relations between Seoul and its former Cold War adversaries would be matched by similar moves by Pyongyang and its enemies, the United States and Japan.
That process has had a mixed record. North-South relations have improved, although Pyongyang is a frustrating and unpredictable diplomatic partner. It took a nuclear crisis to get the US and North Korea to reach a diplomatic modus vivendi - and while it is strained and has deteriorated, relations have improved. South Korea's ties with China continue to expand. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has reinvigorated its ties with Pyongyang, as well as with Beijing and Seoul.
Only Japan has yet to benefit from this new political environment. Attempts to build stronger relations with China have been frustrated. Although Japan and South Korea successfully co-hosted the World Cup and officials say that official relations between the two countries are good, South Koreans tend to feel more anger and resentment than goodwill when asked about Japan.
Tokyo's relations with North Korea and Russia have foundered upon the rocks of history. Mr Koizumi's bold visit to Pyongyang in September was a gambit defeated by intense ill-will among the Japanese public surrounding the treatment of five people abducted by North Korean agents decades ago. The abductees have returned to Japan but their families remain in North Korea. Until their future is settled, North Korea will not discuss security issues with Japan and Tokyo will not discuss economic issues.
Relations with Russia are also stuck. The chief obstacle has been the Northern Territories, four islands seized by the Soviet Union days before the end of World War II. Incredibly, the issue has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty. Today, relations between the two countries are, reports one Japanese official, 'the worst among G-8 members'.
Any Russian readiness to compromise is diminished by the interest other nations are showing in the development of the Russian Far East, in particular its oil and gas reserves. The Siberian oil fields, thought to hold about 240 billion barrels of crude, look increasingly attractive at a time of rising instability in the Middle East. The readiness of other countries to finance the development of those supplies undercuts Japan's bargaining position.
Japan also looks to Russia for help in dealing with North Korea. But during his trip to Moscow, Mr Koizumi got little more from Mr Putin than a call for a peaceful settlement of the nuclear crisis and a commitment to a de-nuclearised Korean peninsula.
That appears to be Mr Koizumi's fate. His instincts are good. He understands that Japan has to play a larger role in Northeast Asian affairs, and that means breaking out of the straitjacket that hinders Japanese diplomacy and leaves it with virtually nothing to do in the region except shelling out money as required. Vision and bold gestures are required. Unfortunately, they are not enough.
There has to be a foreign policy bureaucracy that can deliver on that agenda, and is well-prepared and flexible enough to deal with contingencies.
And a prime minister needs courage and the political skills to push his programme through the political world. Failure to deliver only diminishes his credibility at home and abroad. As recent months have made so clear, Japan cannot afford any more handicaps in its foreign policy.
Brad Glosserman is director of research at Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think-tank
