Short-term politics

The politician who ousted Joseph Estrada two years ago after just 30 months in office may have inadvertently shortened the six-year shelf life of a Philippine president.

His replacement, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, had entered her 23rd month in office when widespread disaffection threatened to plunge her presidency into chaos and instability, just like Estrada's. She only arrested the fall by renouncing her ambition to run next year for another six years.

Those who had helped install her initially supported her plan to stay in office for nine years. They thought it would be a chance for a democratic leader to institute long-term, long-lasting structural reforms.

But Mrs Arroyo's presidency began to smell as bad as Estrada's after just 23 months. Consequently, the differences between both administrations began to blur in the public mind.

If Estrada's mistresses embroiled him in money scandals, Mrs Arroyo's husband did the same for her, whether or not the charges against him were true. Some aides got Estrada into trouble; the same applies to Mrs Arroyo.

Both presidents came under fire for large sums of money received by private foundations bearing their names. Yet Mrs Arroyo is the very opposite of Estrada when it comes to hard work, discipline, persistence and management style.

Despite this, the end result was the same. There was also the increasing temptation to use the constitution to force her to step down, just like in Estrada's case.