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When the leaders of six Malaysian opposition parties  - who seldom see eye to eye - join forces to protest at police action disrupting a popular online daily, it can be taken as a sign of an early election.

Yesterday, the same individuals protested at an upsurge in dengue fever cases. On Saturday, they or their underlings will attend a movie function to raise funds for the hustings.

New Straits Times  editor Abdullah Ali, who often writes on government thinking, said yesterday he expected an election either in August or December. Likewise, Jomo Kwambe Sundram, the ideologue for opposition parties, tipped an election between April and October.

The next elections are due in 2004.

Whatever the date, the guessing game has started and all parties are preparing for battle. They are raising funds, attacking the government on any issue and hitting the road to gauge the mood of voters.

Government ministers, led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, are visiting the states. Party 'deadwoods' are being replaced with new faces for the battle, especially in areas held by the Islamic PAS party.

But Dr Mahathir, who is retiring in October, might not lead an election charge, instead leaving the job to his deputy Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Dr Mahathir's departure, observers say, is both a plus and a minus on the hustings for the 14-party National Front coalition he has led for 22 years.

It was because Dr Mahathir sacked his deputy Anwar Ibrahim in 1998 that the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), the leading Malay member in the coalition, lost two states - Kelantan and Terengganu, to PAS.

'Now that he is leaving, the Malay anger towards him might somewhat lessen . . . but without him more non-Malays are worried about the future of the country,' one observer said.

As before, the Chinese, Indian and East Malaysian voters, who fear PAS and its Islamic agenda, are expected to back the government. Critics also say an on-going constituency re-delineation exercise will end up giving more safe seats to the government.

In addition, the pliant media and the business community appear to be solidly behind the government.

Given these conditions, observers say, the centre piece should be the clash between Umno and the resurgent PAS for Malay voters, who make up about 65 per cent of the 9.5 million registered voters.

Both the Malay-dominated National Justice Party or Keadilan, founded by Anwar, and the long established, Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP) hope to do better this time.

They had an alliance with PAS and non-Malay voters who feared PAS dumped them.

While the government is banking on the same fears to win again, the DAP and to a lesser extent Keadilan, have distanced themselves from PAS.

'Their embrace [of PAS] is the kiss of death for us,' said a DAP vice-president who declined to be named. 'We will face the voters on our own and hope to fare better.'

The new president of PAS, Abdul Hadi Awang, has a harsh, intolerant image that drives non-Muslims away from the party. PAS leaders preach more of Islam's holy laws in Muslim-majority states, and in non-Muslim areas they lecture on the virtues of transparency and accountability and best of all, equality for all Malaysians.



Opposition in Malaysia set for an early election