It is possible that Chen Shui-bian's lease on Taiwan's presidential office will be limited to four years. Now that his two main opponents have decided to join forces in next year's election, Mr Chen faces a very tough campaign indeed. What should not be assumed, however, is that he will definitely be ousted, or that his ousting will make a significant difference to cross-strait relations.
These are conclusions that are easy to jump to, as they follow a simple logic. In the first instance, Mr Chen won the 2000 election only by virtue of a three-way split in the electorate. James Soong Chu-yu, who until a few weeks before polling had been a Kuomintang member, ran on an independent ticket. He took 36.83 per cent of the vote, slightly less than Mr Chen's 39.3 per cent. But if he had not run, the argument goes, the KMT's Lien Chan would have received more than half the vote instead of the paltry 23.1 per cent he chalked up. It follows that, were the two men on a joint ticket - and this has not yet been confirmed - their combined support this time around would be enough to easily defeat Mr Chen.
Second and perhaps more importantly, the two men are infinitely more likeable to China's leadership. Although Mr Lien comes from a family with a long history in Taiwan, he was born on the mainland, as was Mr Soong. Both have stressed adherence to the goal of reunification. Voters concerned about the stability of cross-strait relations could not ask for a better pairing. This ought to suggest that not only will they be a shoo-in at the next elections - since the threat from across the strait remains voters' top concern - but that cross-strait relations will improve once they are in office.
The strengths of these assumptions are also their weaknesses. Mr Soong may have pulled a huge bloc of traditional support away from the KMT in the 2000 election. But back then, he was a different man. As Taiwan's first democratically elected provincial governor, he had already run a nationwide campaign, unlike the other two. Moreover, once the decision was taken to downsize the provincial government, he was left with more than a year - and a sizeable budget - to do nothing but drive around the island kissing babies and building bridges. Mr Lien, meanwhile, ran a miserable campaign back then, and it is debatable whether his poor showing was entirely due to Mr Soong's maverick candidacy.
Similarly, the two men may well have run their 2000 campaigns on a vociferous anti-independence line - with China's tacit support - but that will not necessarily serve them well today. Despite a few scares, Mr Chen's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party has given no indication of inviting an attack from the mainland. Now that voters have been shown the cross-strait status quo can be maintained just as easily by Mr Chen as the other two, why should they welcome a challenge to his rule?
Perhaps the most important question to be asked, however, is this: why should anyone believe that a change of government in Taiwan will alter the cross-strait equation? Taiwan is a democracy; its people will be the ones to decide if there will be peaceful reunification. Having leaders in place who know how not to rock the cross-strait boat will help, but they cannot do what their electorate will not allow.