Economists yesterday said an official forecast of 7 per cent growth in China's foreign trade this year was conservative, but the prospect of a war and higher oil prices made it hard to call.
Zeng Peiyan, minister of the State Development Planning Commission, told the National People's Congress trade in 2003 would grow by around 7 per cent, down from 21.8 per cent in 2002.
'This is a very conservative figure,' said Song Guoqing, a professor at the China Economic Research Centre of Peking University. 'I forecast the figure at 20 per cent. The US dollar is devaluing and the renminbi with it.
'Yes, there is the danger of protectionism but it hurts both sides. Things are usually settled through negotiation.'
Paul Schymick, regional economist for IDEA Global in Singapore, said that falling trade volume was in line with an expected slowdown in exports.
'Exports have slowed down and they are probably not going to repeat last year's growth. For trade overall, we would still be looking at around 10 per cent for this year. It will depend on the US economy and a possible US-led war with Iraq,' he said, adding that last year's trade growth rate looked stronger because of a weak base of comparison in 2001.
