What China fears: US antagonism
China has long emphasised non-interference in the affairs of another country as a basic tenet of international law. So why is China adopting a policy of disapproval - but not outspoken condemnation - of the US invasion of Iraq?
China once suffered from the same US trade embargo that Iraq, North Korea and Cuba suffer from today. After 40 years of isolation and another 20 years of roller-coaster relations with the United States, China finally seems to have achieved superficially stable relations with America. This was symbolised by Jiang Zemin's last major official act as head of state, a long-desired visit to US President George W. Bush's ranch in Texas.
China's leaders are pragmatic. Economic growth tops their agenda. They fear that criticism of the US might lead to trade setbacks. After Iraq, the US will need to find new enemies to support its military-industrial economic machine. So China's foreign policy is to do nothing to provoke Americans, and to hope that its turn does not come next. China's diplomatic challenge will be to keep off Mr Bush's enemies list. President Hu Jintao may soon be asking for an invitation to the ranch.
In recent weeks, China's foreign-policy experts watched with interest as the largest mobilisation of peace marchers since Vietnam took to the streets of the world's major cities. They observed that the White House could not care less. In fact, the Bush administration seemed stupefied that anyone would differ from its view.
For China, this sends an uncomfortable signal not only about US military expansionism, but also about the fundamentalism of American politics, which is taking on an air of theology.
Analysts in China ask whether the war against Iraq is intended to supply fuel for the US' military-industrial economic model. Chinese economists observe how the recent 'code orange' alert for terrorist attack stimulated US consumer spending, with terrified masses rushing to supermarkets to stock up on provisions and buying en masse useless plastic tarpaulins to cover windows in case of biological attack. As commodities move off store shelves, the use of transport and oil consumption shoot up. The maintenance of US troops in Iraq and in other surrounding nations will stimulate America's pillar industries - steel, chemicals, electronics and hi-tech - and power an economic growth cycle which could keep the Bush administration around for another five years.
The US government's debt burden of trillions of dollars to support its military-industrial growth may be mitigated by its military expansion and control over the Gulf region. Under this scenario, America's main creditors like Japan and China - which hold large amounts of US Treasury bonds - will become dependent upon US-controlled oil supplies for their own growth, giving the US unprecedented leverage over their economies. Indeed, increased oil imports at higher prices were behind China's first trade deficit in years, in January.
Historical parallels are worrisome. Half a century ago, Japan's East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere envisioned conciliatory regional governments (read: puppets) all 'sharing' prosperity, built on Japanese military-industrial might and the raw materials, energy sources and cheap labour of Asian nations. The US military expansion in Central Asia and the Middle East envisions puppet governments in Afghanistan and Iraq, client states in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a carving up of Palestine in the name of security.
Control over the Central Asian pipeline corridor would give the US historically unprecedented control over the region's oil.
The maintenance of this new 'co-prosperity sphere' seems predicated on continued US military policing of unstable regions (a guaranteed stimulus for new instability), to provide military-industrial economic growth.
If you are sitting today in China or any other country which was invaded and incorporated into Japan's co-prosperity sphere, you can understand why China may not share the Bush administration's enthusiasm for what it is doing. You can also understand why it is also too afraid to speak out.
Laurence Brahm is a political economist and lawyer based in Beijing
