THE 2002 NATIONAL account numbers are now in for all Asian countries, which makes this a fine opportunity to pose the question of how Hong Kong stands relative to the rest of the region.
The answer to the question, as the first chart shows, is that we are right in line with our regional neighbours in terms of growth of gross domestic product, up and down at the same time and at present showing recovery at the same pace.
Now let me admit immediately that this is not a complete sample. I have excluded China and Japan from the figures - China because I frankly have less than complete faith in its GDP figures and Japan because it has marched to a different drummer from the rest of the region for the past 12 years. Aside from Hong Kong, the sample consists of South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.
If I had included them, the boom in China would almost have cancelled out the slowdown in Japan and the chart would really not look all that much different. The overall growth rate would be slightly lower and both the dip in 1998 and the compensating recovery two years later would be much less.
You would also have had a confused chart with three lines running through each other and good reason to turn to something else. Best compare things that are comparable and keep the charts as simple as I can.
But now turn to where Hong Kong shows differences from the others. The biggest single component of GDP is personal consumption expenditure - you and your money in the shops. Personal consumption expenditure across the rest of the sample showed a weighted average growth rate of 4 per cent in the fourth quarter. No such luck in Hong Kong. The comparable figure for us was a negative 2.1 per cent.
Notice from the second chart that this is not unusual for us. Any hint of an economic slowdown and we keep our money in our wallets. It was apparent in 1995 and also during the worst of the financial crisis in 1998.