A test for Chinese pride
Beijing's public security nerves were rattled when 150 foreign residents protested against the invasion of Iraq outside the American ambassador's residence last week. At the same time, a local Chinese anti-war protest was dispersed in a nearby park. But police did not know how to handle one Chinese veteran of the Korean war, who donned his medals and shouted: 'Don't you realise, North Korea is next?'
China's Foreign Ministry dances a tightrope between popular opposition to America's 'first strike' doctrine and former leader Deng Xiaoping's policy of 'hide one's views until opportunity turns in your favour'. While it is routine to disperse protests in the name of social stability, doing it for fear of offending America is not. As Iraqi President Saddam Hussein adopts Mao Zedong-style guerilla tactics, many Chinese find themselves cheering for an underdog who dared to stand up to America. The coalition's invasion of Iraq eerily parallels the 19th century opium wars, after which invading powers carved China into zones occupied and administered by foreigners. Security and ideological missions are old pretexts for commercial motives. Chinese people may not care for Mr Hussein, but they do admire the Iraqi people's ability to stand up for themselves.
China's foreign policy faces a dilemma. One-third of China's crude oil is imported, 60 per cent from the Middle East. A price increase to US$40 (HK$312) a barrel would cost China an additional 25 billion yuan (HK$23.5 billion) a year, hurting the transport industry. Within the first two months of this year, petrol prices rocketed 50 per cent. Sharp increases in chemical bio-products, textiles and cotton weakened the industrial and transport sectors. Higher costs hit China's airlines. America's occupation of the Middle East will grip China's economy by the throat. Interrupting oil shipments to Japan and China would be the most effective way of containing these nations.
Japan expresses support for America, trying to quell domestic protest amid fears of America's newly acquired ability to derail its economy by choking the supply of oil. China's leaders, while not expressing their views openly, share similar sentiments: Offending America carries high costs.
'Shock and awe' bombing is not causing Iraqis to rise up against their leader. Instead, about 6,000 political exiles voluntarily returned to fight the foreign invaders. American networks cannot explain why Iraqi suicide fighters die for their land like Palestinians. American troops cannot work out why they are unable to win the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people who, regardless of their distaste for Mr Hussein, do not want to be ruled by Americans.
The Chinese, however, can understand easily. In World War II, the communists and the Kuomintang temporarily set aside their fierce animosity and united to resist the invading Japanese. Like the Afghans, the Iraqis know what is in store for them - surrender and live, or fight and die. The Chinese dread what may happen next in North Korea.
Americans, with their melting-pot patriotism, cannot appreciate the uniting force of ethnicity. But the Chinese, with 52 minorities fiercely adhering to their individual ethnicities, can.
North Korea, which is trying to trade nuclear disarmament for bilateral American guarantees against attack, faces American insistence on multilateral discussions. If economic strangulation fails, the blame and the costs of American pre-emptive strikes on North Korea may be unloaded onto China, Japan and South Korea. US President George W. Bush will place unprecedented pressure on China to embargo and break President Kim Jong-il's regime. Will China respond to America's demands?
The buffer zone that North Korea provides between America and China was won at the cost of too many Chinese lives. With all his digital war game computations, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld may once again forget to calculate the power of ethnic nationalism.
Laurence Brahm is a political economist and lawyer based in Beijing
