As one leading Hong Kong research scientist admitted, on the condition of anonymity, even the most wildly optimistic prediction would not see the SAR Sars-free before June, which means the earliest the WHO travel warning could only be lifted would be August. 'For Hong Kong the best-case scenario is two to three months from now, but I don't think we're going to be that lucky,' the scientist says. 'Especially given the way it's spreading across the mainland, I don't think it's ever going to be eradicated there.'

That means that it is impossible to imagine Liverpool won't follow the example of Everton and Aston Villa, who recently pulled out of May's four-team tournament in Shenzhen, and withdraw from their fixture against Hong Kong on July 27. Interestingly IMG, the sports marketing company behind Liverpool's planned trip to Hong Kong and Shanghai, is saying it 'doesn't expect to make any changes' to the Hong Kong leg. More reassuringly it says it is 'monitoring the situation'.

Equally, it's extremely unlikely that the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Open squash tournament, part of the Professional Squash Association's elite Super Series, will take place a month later. 'It's inevitable, but we aren't announcing anything official yet. The decision will be made this week or in the first week of May,' admits the executive director of Hong Kong Squash, Heather Deayton, who adds that delaying the cancellation is increasing its financial liabilities.

Across the border, where the Chinese National Sports Bureau has announced the suspension of all sports events until at least the end of May, the relocation of FIFA's Women's World Cup, possibly to Australia, now looks a certainty. The draw, which was supposed to have taken place in Wuhan two days ago, was postponed indefinitely two weeks beforehand and although the event is not until the end of August, time is already running out.

'We must have the draw one month before, so we have until August, which is really touch and go,' concedes Peter Velappan, the general secretary of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). 'FIFA has to make the decision in the next month or so. Australia is not a bad idea, if it then gives China the next one.'

The AFC itself is seeing its competition schedules thrown into chaos by numerous postponements - the AFC Women's Championship, Olympic qualifying matches and the AFC Champions League have all been affected. 'There's nothing we can do but take a back seat,' adds Velappan. 'We would be inhuman to take risks and contribute to the disaster. We're fully aware of that. We just have to be led by the WHO and the individual governments. We won't be greedy and look only at the interests of our game. We can only wait for Sars to leave us and begin our normal lives.'

The AFC is, however in a better position than most, as its sponsorship packages are sold over a four-year period, which gives it plenty of leeway to complete its events. Other sports, particularly those with sponsorships tied to particular annual events, will take a far bigger financial hit. Fortunately most Asian sports have been inoculated against the worst financial effects of Sars, thanks to their exposure to that other scourge of the continent, the economic crisis of 1997.

Although officially still on, cancellation of badminton's World Championships in Birmingham next month is becoming more and more likely, which would make it arguably the first significant event outside the major Sars-infected nations to fall victim to the virus. International Badminton Federation (IBF) chief executive Neil Cameron says the governing body would comfortably survive such an eventuality, but concedes this would not have been the case four years ago. 'Even in our wildest horrors we wouldn't be in a situation where we wouldn't have the capital. We're definitely not in a situation where we might go bankrupt. But if this had happened four years ago we would have definitely,' he admits. 'We were so reliant on getting funds in from our events. If anything had happened to the 1999 World Championships we would have been in sever financial difficulties.'

Of course cancelling international events in areas subject to WHO travel warnings - currently Toronto, Beijing, Shanxi province, Guandong province and Hong Kong - should be a no-brainer, which makes one wonder about the wisdom of Major League Baseball insisting that the Toronto Blue Jay's home games should continue.

The major issue facing international sport globally has been how to deal with competitors from Sars-infected nations. Clearly the initial response of the French organisers of rugby union's Under-19 World Championship held earlier this month to declare, on the advice of their health ministry, that the Hong Kong and Taiwan teams were not welcome while still welcoming Canada was, at best, a crass example of ignorance. Canada at the time sat between Hong Kong and Taiwan on the league table of Sars cases. The same ministry is now saying no restrictions will apply to teams travelling for next month's World Table Tennis Championships in Paris.

The banning of two female Chinese runners from April's Rotterdam Marathon in the Netherlands because, the race director is reported to have said, their presence made the other runners nervous, also falls on the wrong side of questionable.

Other athletes have been made to either undergo medical checks or even quarantine themselves away from other athletes, such as Hong Kong cyclist Wong Kam-po during a recent trip to the Netherlands. 'He was required to go one week before the competition was due to start and advised not to train with other players,' reveals Chung Pak-kwong, the elite training director of the Sports Development Board (SDB). 'It's understandable because we need to abide by the rules set up by the organiser when we take part in the event. We have to put up with it if the situation drags on.'

Far more sensitive to the issue, due to Asia's domination of the sport, the IBF's major concern should its World Championships go ahead, are not just the risk of infection to other competitors, but also the risk of players from the Sars areas being treated like lepers. 'We're due to have participants from countries like Hong Kong, Singapore and China and there is a little concern about whether or not they will welcomed in the right way,' says Cameron.

'Volunteers at the event have already started asking if there'll be players from Hong Kong. We've told them if they have personal issues or concerns then please pull out. We want to be sure the treatment is suitable. We don't want anyone saying 'I'm not handing you your change because you're from Hong Kong,' or 'You're not coming in my car from the hotel to the stadium because you're from Hong Kong'.'

The issue may be about to be taken out of their hands, ironically in part due to the conclusion of hostilities in Iraq, after which the global media has turned it's focus far more harshly on the pneumonia outbreak. The result is far more pressure on governments in both Europe and North America to give a firm lead on the outbreak.

But even this appears likely to be pre-empted by the mainland, whose decision to withdraw 15 Chinese athletes from the IAAF Grand Prix in Japan on May 10 seems to be a sign that, as well as shutting down domestic sport, they may be about to limit their involvement international. Although Ren Chunhui, the deputy secretary of the China Badminton Association, said a few days ago it would be sending its top players, the IBF has heard unofficially that China won't be competing in Birmingham. Similarly several other Asian countries have indicated, but not confirmed, a reluctance to travel to Birmingham.

Only hindsight will prove whether such a move would be an overreaction or the kind of action that prevents a global catastrophe, but the knock-on effects will be significant, making it highly likely that most international events will postpone, cancel or simply refuse to accept entrants from the Sars regions, including, obviously, Hong Kong.

Using the same logic, the continuation of Hong Kong sports, not so much a decision but more due to the fact the government, while refusing to issue instructions to sports governing bodies, has kept its facilities open, will become subject to greater scrutiny now that China has halted its activities.

Those against a shutdown in Hong Kong can, of course, point to the fact that about 70,000 fans and players from 24 teams all emerged unaffected from the Hong Kong Sevens. Equally, sport in Hong Kong is split between those who want a firm set of instructions from the government and those who believe it should be left to the individual sports.

'What sports should go on and what sports shouldn't should depend on the nature of that sport,' says Chung. 'In some sports, athletes have closer contacts with one another. While in other sports, they play on the opposite sides of the net and should be safer. The venue also plays a part. Some sports are indoors and some are outdoors. Open space sports should not pose a big problem to the athletes.'

However, Dr Lobo Louie Hung-tak, the secretary of the Hong Kong Association of Sports Medicine and Sports Science and assistant professor of Hong Kong University's Department of Physical Education, suggests that top-level sport in inherently dangerous at this time. 'Some research has shown that your immune system would be weakened if your heart rate is over 200. Theoretically speaking, it is impossible that your body does not reach a maximum intensity when you play in a competition. So, we think local sporting competitions should be put on hold.'

The biggest threat to local sport seems to be the changing room environment, which Dr Louie argues mirrors the conditions responsible for Hong Kong's worst Sars outbreak. 'The dressing room is arguably a very high-risk area. It's not the sport itself. It's not when you play. It's more when you take a shower or change in the locker room. The steam in the locker room is particularly worrying because it's how a lot of people in the Amoy Garden might have got infected. We can't rule any possibility out.'