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Probability Theory

Busiest season a little easier on the nerves

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
Alan Aitken

The home straights at Happy Valley and Sha Tin felt a bit shorter this racing season if you were backing leaders.

Or maybe they were just a touch longer if you were on closers. Either way, the nerves were not as frayed because Hong Kong racing was less competitive this year.

It was no easier to own, train, ride or back a winner, but the finishes were not quite as nail-biting.

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Following two seasons of tight, neck-and-neck race finishes, the 2002-03 season returned to more comfortable margins with just over 31 per cent of races decided by half a length or less. That was a significant drop from 39 and 40 per cent respectively in the preceding years.

There were more races than ever before, with a final total of 710 by the time Sunday's meeting was complete - the first time 700 had been exceeded.

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While more first favourites won races - 196 including one dead heat - favourite punters were no better off and possibly the tiniest bit worse than previously even though their judgment was quite accurate.

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