President Chen Shui-bian is needlessly risking Taiwan's security by promising to hold a referendum no later than March 20, the date of the next presidential elections.
The US correctly sees the inherent danger of provoking the mainland if Taiwan were to hold a referendum - on any issue. Mr Chen said the referendum will not be on the question of Taiwan's independence but on whether Taiwan should build a fourth nuclear power plant.
Defying the US, the Chen administration insists that it is Taiwan's fundamental right to hold a referendum and that no nation, even the US, has the right to stop it. The US, after having warned Mr Chen, has adopted an ambiguous attitude. A spokesman for the American Institute in Taiwan - the unofficial American embassy in Taipei - recalled that Mr Chen had pledged in his inauguration speech in May 2000 that he 'would not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regards to the question of independence or unification', and that the US takes the pledge seriously.
Although Mr Chen insists he would hold referendums only on economic or social issues, the mainland strongly objects to the holding of any referendum, for fear that this will establish machinery that might be used in future to promote independence.
Mainland officials no doubt remember that, last August, Mr Chen told pro-independence supporters in Japan that what was needed was a referendum law, so that in future a referendum could be held on whether Taiwan wants formal independence. The ruling party has now proposed such a referendum law. That being the case, it is understandable why mainland China does not want to see any kind of referendum in Taiwan.
Mr Chen, by linking the date of the referendum to the coming presidential election, made it clear that the move is part of his re-election campaign strategy - to drum up momentum for his own candidacy.