President Chen Shui-bian is needlessly risking Taiwan's security by promising to hold a referendum no later than March 20, the date of the next presidential elections. The US correctly sees the inherent danger of provoking the mainland if Taiwan were to hold a referendum - on any issue. Mr Chen said the referendum will not be on the question of Taiwan's independence but on whether Taiwan should build a fourth nuclear power plant. Defying the US, the Chen administration insists that it is Taiwan's fundamental right to hold a referendum and that no nation, even the US, has the right to stop it. The US, after having warned Mr Chen, has adopted an ambiguous attitude. A spokesman for the American Institute in Taiwan - the unofficial American embassy in Taipei - recalled that Mr Chen had pledged in his inauguration speech in May 2000 that he 'would not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regards to the question of independence or unification', and that the US takes the pledge seriously. Although Mr Chen insists he would hold referendums only on economic or social issues, the mainland strongly objects to the holding of any referendum, for fear that this will establish machinery that might be used in future to promote independence. Mainland officials no doubt remember that, last August, Mr Chen told pro-independence supporters in Japan that what was needed was a referendum law, so that in future a referendum could be held on whether Taiwan wants formal independence. The ruling party has now proposed such a referendum law. That being the case, it is understandable why mainland China does not want to see any kind of referendum in Taiwan. Mr Chen, by linking the date of the referendum to the coming presidential election, made it clear that the move is part of his re-election campaign strategy - to drum up momentum for his own candidacy. Mr Chen may even be pinning his hopes on so provoking the mainland that it will again hold war games in the Taiwan Strait or otherwise threaten Taiwan. That would surely cause voters in Taiwan to close ranks and rally around their president. Mr Chen argues that Taiwan should have the right to conduct referendums as a democratic way of making decisions on major issues. However, he should realise that any action that upsets the status quo in the Taiwan Strait could trigger a war involving not just Taiwan and mainland China but also the US. That being the case, the US, as the guarantor of Taiwan's security, should have a major voice in decisions that could endanger the lives of American soldiers. The months between now and the presidential election in March will be extremely sensitive, and all three parties - the US, the mainland and Taiwan - will need to exercise great sensitivity in its judgments. The mainland leadership has shown great restraint in recent years, even though Taiwan has repudiated the 'one China' concept and insisted that it was an independent sovereign state. It accepts the right of other countries to do business with Taiwan but tolerates this as long as all exchanges are, at least theoretically, conducted unofficially. But while it accepts Taiwan's de facto independence, it has made it crystal clear that it will not accept an official declaration of independence by Taiwan. Any such declaration would undoubtedly trigger off war, even if the mainland is unsure that it will win. There is no doubt about this. Mr Chen should realise that there is more at stake than the winning of the next presidential elections. Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator