'We have slain the dragon, but are now living in a jungle full of poisonous snakes,' former CIA director James Wolsey said in 1990, pointing to the unrest that followed the Soviet Union's fall. Ten years on, Wolsey's assertion applies to the various forces that menace modern society even more, according to Britain's Astronomer Royal, Martin Rees, in his latest popular science blockbuster, Our Final Century (Heinnemann).
With suicide bombers running amok in Chechnya and Israel, and Iranian hardliners advocating that their nation develop nuclear weapons, Rees looks right about the present. But he also has an eye on the future, which he paints darkly, warning that current nuclear states equipped with dismantled weapons may still pose a threat since their hardware cannot be 'uninvented'. Other scenarios he highlights include a rogue or incompetent biologist unleashing a 'supervirus', and an exceptionally violent atom-smashing experiment triggering the formation of an all-devouring black hole.
But in his even-tempered way he expects to win. Responding to critics who claim his predictions are wildly far-fetched, the lean 61-year-old says: 'I think that some of them indeed are,' underlining that, in certain cases, the likelihood of mass destruction is tiny - a billion to one against, or lower. Rees cites the atom-smasher mishap scenario as an example.
Reacting to accusations that he is a Jeremiah, Rees tells the story of a man falling from a skyscraper who passes the tenth floor, saying: 'It's all right so far.'
Among all the wretched scenarios Rees explores, the nuclear threat bothers him most. Beware complacency, he stresses, adding: 'The fact is that the arsenals of the United States and Russia still have the explosive power of one of the American air force's Daisycutter bombs for every single person in Europe and every single person in America.'
The likelihood of a nuclear conflict has recently escalated, Rees says, blaming the Iraq war, which he opposed. He explains that the overwhelming advantage that smart weapons afforded America signalled that it can impose its will on any country at minimal human cost to itself.
