Guarding against prairie fires

The demonstrations against Article 23, challenging the very legitimacy of Tung Chee-hwa administration, present the central government with a potential quagmire which goes deeper than the very question of the 'one country, two systems' principle. If Mr Tung was forced to step down because of public protests, this would strengthen the democratic movement in Hong Kong. But such an unprecedented example of popular pressure changing government administration is an issue of utmost sensitivity for mainland officials.

All too aware of how the psychology of Chinese mass movements has worked throughout history, Mao Zedong said: 'A single spark can start a prairie fire'. There is also the ancient Chinese saying, 'When the wall collapses everybody pushes'.

This is why the central government is carefully evaluating each development in the ongoing crisis of confidence in Mr Tung.

Ironically, Article 23 itself may be peripheral to the crisis. Equally draconian administrative tools have been adopted through legislation following the September 11 attacks. Rather, Article 23 may be seen as a lightening rod for long-simmering frustration within Hong Kong society, which faces an economy that peaked in the mid-1990s and is now witnessing slower growth and increasing competition from mainland cities.

Article 23 is also a nexus of growing friction between the pro-western democracy camps in Hong Kong politics, many of whose leaders are products of the British colonial system and the values associated with it, and the pro-China business interests who have represented mainstream political power in post-1997 Hong Kong.

The concern of the central government is probably less Article 23's substance than how the confidence crisis in Mr Tung may degenerate further. Simply put, if Mr Tung were forced to step down, such an event would play into the hands of those who are cynical of the 'one country, two systems' approach to resolving the Taiwan question.

Equally serious are repercussions that such an event would have in other parts of China, where popular anger towards inefficient and corrupt government administrators is rising each day.