It is not as if the leaders in Yangon were taken unawares by the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act that President George W. Bush signed last week after both Houses of the US Congress passed it almost unanimously. In fact, Myanmar's intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt, reportedly told United Nations envoy Razali Ismail that Myanmar was not afraid of American sanctions because its neighbours would compensate for the loss in trade, aid and investment.
This creates a piquant situation for Mr Bush. His action demonstrates moral concern, a willingness to live up to global expectations of the lone superpower and an awareness of his place in history. Hence, a warning to the ruling junta that unless it mends its ways within 30 days, the US will stop imports from and ban remittances to Myanmar and freeze senior officials' assets.
The act stipulates stringent conditions for lifting sanctions. The junta must stop violating human rights, 'including rape'. It must not use 'forced and child labour' or conscript child soldiers. It must release political prisoners, allow freedom of speech, association and religion, and press freedom. Above all, it must resume talks with Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) and agree to transfer power to a democratically elected civilian government that is accountable to the people.
These are fine objectives, but will the junta willingly sign its death warrant? Sanctions have not brought any other regime to heel, and are unlikely to coerce Myanmar's rulers into submission. When the US threatened to boycott Libyan oil, its ruler, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, thundered that 'people who lived without oil for 5,000 years can live without it again for a few years in order to attain their legitimate rights'.
The 'rights', in the case of Myanmar's junta, are far from legitimate. But poor countries like Libya and Myanmar can absorb punishment that would cripple a western nation. Moreover, Iraq demonstrated that sanctions do not hurt the elite.
Myanmar's strategic position, with a 1,930km coastline on the Andaman Sea, gives it geopolitical advantages that the junta exploits. Chief of the ruling junta General Than Shwe visited China and Bangladesh recently. Acknowledging ancient cultural ties, Foreign Minister Win Aung announced in New Delhi in January that 'in some ways, India is our motherland'. Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's presence in Yangon in February testified to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' friendly co-operation. Even Russia is courting Myanmar with MIG-29 fighters.