A wake-up call for China's new leaders
Western academics and think-tank types have long espoused an ideologically premised theory of China's 'coming collapse'. While they officially reject such notions, researchers at China's own think-tanks are now openly discussing the socio-economic pressures threatening the country's economic growth. In the interests of sound economics, they concede that such threats can no longer be dismissed for political convenience.
The new State Development and Economic Reform Commission (SDERC) is leading this discussion. SDERC was created during the 10th National People's Congress last March, when the policy research functions of the former State Development Planning Commission and State Council Office for Reform of Economic Systems (former premier Zhu Rongji's pet think-tank) were merged to form China's answer to America's Rand Corp or Brookings Institution.
A mere four months after its establishment, SDERC has shocked the national leadership by tabling a list of 13 problems that could potentially derail China's economic development. A detailed analysis of this list has already been submitted to the State Council for review. It is understood that this report will become the focus of a Social Work Conference to be held in October and will provide a framework for China's 11th Five-Year Plan, now being drafted.
The 13 friction points as listed in the report are: China-US relations; the Taiwan question; border security; personnel changes; globalisation; foreign trade; financial risks; three agricultural issues (agriculture as a sector, farmers' livelihoods, and the village as a socio-economic unit); income gaps; unemployment; social order; public security; and the environment.
SDERC's 13 subjects are clearly interlinked. Moreover, the study dares to address once-taboo subjects like the fragility of China-US relations (a sacrosanct issue in former president Jiang Zemin's administration) and instability arising from personnel changes among the leadership.
China-US relations, the Taiwan issue and border security are effectively a single set of inseparable concerns, made acute by America's increasingly forward military positions around the globe and by the Chinese foreign ministry's own miscalculation of US intentions and the flow of events. Relations have been both strengthened and strained by America's war on terror: China has been taken off US President George W. Bush's 'bad guys' list, but now American troops are deployed in most of China's sensitive border regions in Central Asia.