A bit of palace-watching
And now for something completely different: if you will indulge me, a bit of palace-watching. A report is doing the rounds in Taipei that former president Jiang Zemin has offered to give up the chair of the Central Military Commission. It started in the United Daily News, which has close links to the Taiwanese spy services, which have by far the best intelligence on the mainland military establishment.
It might be nothing. The Politburo has apparently politely declined the offer, and President Hu Jintao is believed to have expressed his hope that Mr Jiang remain and 'continue to assist the party'. But while Mr Jiang may have done it to prompt a chorus of 'No! Gasp! You can't!' exclamations, it does come at a time when two interesting political campaigns are coinciding, with perhaps unintended consequences.
The first is in Beijing, where the party elite are preparing for a gathering of its central committee in October. The 'third plenum' has been a major event on China's political calendar ever since Deng Xiaoping used it to launch his reforms in 1978. This year, a key issue is protection of private property - a central plank of Mr Jiang's Theory of the Three Representatives. While the concept is likely to be endorsed, it seems there is a struggle over its wording, which indicates that state property will remain a class above private property. Reports also suggest the new leadership is pushing for a seismic shift in the focus of China's development, one that strives to put the 'social' back into 'socialism with Chinese characteristics'. That may sound logical after Sars, but the details need to be thrashed out on an ideological battleground.
This is high ground for Mr Jiang. It was he who gave the mainland a coherent policy on Taiwan, where before it had only rhetoric. When the US sent its aircraft carriers through the strait in 1996, it was a staggering 'foreign' policy setback. Mr Jiang used it to wrest control of the Taiwan issue - and thus the military - away from some hawkish generals. His ability to manage a cross-strait spat is his raison d' etre atop the military commission.
Why is all this important to understand? Because it is not about personalities; it is a competition between schools of thought, the outcome of which will affect China's governance for the next four years or more.
The thing to keep in mind about these two schools is that they are often not what their popular images suggest. It would be wrong, for instance, to assume Mr Jiang's camp is the more conservative simply because he is from an older generation. His Three Representatives theory is as bold a reform as Deng's 'black cat, white cat' proclamation. That it is apparently encountering resistance ahead of the third plenum is cause for concern.
Neither would it be prudent to take for granted the motivation behind Mr Hu's push for transparency and accountability in the party and government. There is a difference between wanting the media to help root out corruption and wanting it to 'seek truth from facts'.
It is hard to tell who has the upper hand going into the third plenum. Mr Hu gained a lot of ground in the aftermath of Sars. But Mr Jiang still has much left to give. It should be an interesting contest of wills, and wouldn't it be ironic if sabre-rattling by Mr Chen and Mr Lee in Taipei were to influence its outcome.
Anthony Lawrance is the Post's managing editor
