Home record gives Turks upper hand

With Owen injured and Ferdinand's exclusion causing chaos in England's camp, the smart money will be on the hosts

The Group Seven decider between Turkey and England is this weekend's live TV highlight in the final round of the Euro 2004 group qualifiers and is one of the more appealing betting options on a list which includes numerous short-odds teams.

Turkey need to win to qualify as group winners and their chances have risen this week due to the turmoil in the England camp over Rio Ferdinand's exclusion and, even more damagingly, the injury to Michael Owen.

The importance of Owen to the England team cannot be overstated. During Sven Goran Eriksson's reign as coach, they have lost only one competitive match with Owen in the lineup - last year's World Cup quarter-final to Brazil. The competitive record with Owen otherwise includes 14 wins and three draws under Eriksson, so his absence is a massive reduction to England's threat going forward.

Emile Heskey has a poor scoring record at the top level, while Wayne Rooney - for all his potential and his sparkling performance in the 2-0 win over Turkey in April - has scored just eight goals in 53 senior matches (though he only started around half of those games). In fact, his yellow cards (13) far outweigh his goals tally - which has been one of the concerns about playing him in the Istanbul game.

Rooney is not the only worry on the disciplinary front, with Steven Gerrard and Ashley Cole two more hotheads likely to boil over in the pressure-cooker atmosphere. The possibility of a sending-off is one factor which reduces confidence in England, though the game has the best possible referee in Pierluigi Collina.