How to get rid of every dictator
Is former presidential speechwriter and US ambassador Mark Palmer the wildest of fantasists or a true prophet of this new 'century of democracy'? He has drawn up a rogues' gallery of the world's 43 remaining dictators - from China's Hu Jintao to Fidel Castro of Cuba - and contends that they can all be put out of business by 2025, and almost entirely through nonviolent means. In other words, in just a generation, we could have a fully democratic world.
He has laid it all out - the candidates for eviction, the nature of their regimes and a how-to-do-it guide for democracy activists - in a new book, Breaking the Real Axis of Evil.
His passion flows from years on the barricades. As a presidential speechwriter, he lent the words to Ronald Reagan's memorable Westminster speech that foretold the doom of the Soviet empire. As US ambassador to Budapest, he marched on the streets with students, sweet-talked hardcore communists into accepting the inevitable and, before his tour was over, Hungary stood among the iron curtain's new democracies.
Now, along with the bipartisan Council for a Community of Democracies and other similarly driven private groups, he looks at the possibility of the nonviolent overthrow of an 'arc of tyranny' that runs from North Korea and China to several former Soviet Central Asian republics, the Middle East and Angola, along with three other isolated western dictatorships.
He draws inspiration from the democratic successes of the last 25 years: the ousting of former presidents Marcos, in the Philippines, Suharto, in Indonesia, and Jaruzelski, in Poland, plus the collapse of the Berlin Wall - all with a minimum of bloodshed.
He notes that most of the world's Muslims already live in electoral democracies (including India and Indonesia). The days could be numbered for some of the remaining despots on Palmer's hit list - Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jong-il of North Korea, to name but two.
China's leaders are at the top of this list, but may be the hardest target of all. They perform well enough to maintain legitimacy and concede just enough space to stall serious opposition. Moreover, democracies hesitate to try to destabilise China because of its increasing weight on the world stage and the unacceptable economic cost of abrupt regime change. Still, Palmer wants to get the ball rolling by promoting civic education in the mainland and helping Hong Kong citizens maintain and test the limits of their freedom.
While it is possible to quibble about why some regimes are on the list, there is no doubt North Korea and Iran deserve their place. Besides being despicable tyrannies, there is also the nuclear threat.
The rulers of Myanmar and Cambodia are arguably ripe for a fall. There are credible democratic alternatives in both countries. Both have large and well-placed emigre communities that can feed financial and moral support to their democratic cohorts.
Myanmar's Asian neighbours cannot seem to deal forcefully enough with the military junta, so Palmer proposes a broader Asia-Pacific democratic caucus, including the US, Australia, New Zealand, India and Taiwan, to put its collective weight behind a peaceful transition process. He believes that a sustained dialogue with the generals could open up a face-saving way for them to yield power and set a date for free and fair elections.
But why bother with these hangovers from the last century? Because they are the cause of much of our misery: wars, genocide, starvation, refugee flights and underdevelopment.
While democracies account for more than 90 per cent of the world's combined gross national product, and have the best military firepower, they are divided by self-interest; some are still allergic to American triumphalism. This project may have to be handed over to another 'coalition of the willing', or, as Palmer suggests, some kind of global Nato.
He would also like to see an active democracy caucus in the United Nations pressure dictatorships to abide by international standards of conduct. He has faith in a well-tested methodology for democrats to challenge despotic regimes without using or provoking violence. The trick is to make the dictator think twice before ordering his troops to fire on dissenters, as Marcos did a few days before the US pulled him out of Manila.
The book also calls for the business community to play a part - to walk away from oppressive regimes and to co-operate in economic embargoes, as many did to help defeat apartheid in South Africa.
Palmer sees America's use of economic sanctions as counterproductive. 'They only hurt the people and allow dictators to play the nationalist card,' he argues. He also would like to see diplomats in the thick of the fight for democracy. He believes that every US embassy in a problem country should be a 'freedom house' and every such ambassador a 'freedom fighter'. It can be done. 'Rogue' US ambassador Smith Hempstone conspired with his German, Danish, Swedish and Canadian colleagues to hasten the retirement of Kenyan strongman Daniel arap Moi.
Eduardo Lachica is a veteran analyst of Asian affairs based in Washington
