The capture of Saddam Hussein, who - despite his vainglorious boasting and the example of his dead sons - gave up without firing a shot, is a tremendous propaganda victory for the US, Britain and their allies. However, the very sight of the once silk-suited tyrant emerging dishevelled and shifty-eyed from his rathole like some unkempt dosser carries its own warning.
This pathetic figure could not have been the military brain behind the insurgent war which is giving the US such a rough time. Someone on the run from rathole to rathole, unable even to shave, could not plan the co-ordinated suicide bombings and ambushes which are continuing even after his abject surrender.
He might well have been the icon of the insurgents but never the co-ordinator of the attacks with a staff, headquarters and communications system. Removing the icon should lead to a collapse of the loose amalgamation of the estimated 15 groups of Baathists, Hussein supporters, Fedayeen and foreign Islamists who comprise the insurgent forces, but it would be wishful thinking to believe that they would give up the struggle because their non-executive director is arrested.
It is more likely that in the short term the violence will increase with the insurgents setting out to avenge Hussein and then to prove that they can wage a successful war without him. One of the perverse dangers in Hussein's capture is that it will be seen in the Arab world, even by those who acknowledge that he is evil, as another humiliation for the Arabs by the west - another victory for the crusaders over Islam.
So, while the coalition forces have to continue to defend themselves and to attack the insurgents it must be done without any display of triumphalism. Possibly the most important decision affecting the future of Iraq and the west's relations with the Arab world centres on Hussein's fate.
The Iraqis are determined to put him on trial and most of them have already decided not only that he must be executed but that he must be hanged. Shooting is too honorable a death for such an ogre. Only in this way, they argue, can they lift the pall of evil and violence which hangs over their country, birthplace of one of the world's great civilisations.
The trouble is that there has been no proper legal system in Iraq for the past 35 years. The Iraqi Governing Council set up a special tribunal last week to try former Baathist regime members for crimes committed against Iraqis but Hussein committed horrendous crimes against other countries. Iran and Kuwait are anxious to put him on trial. There may also be a United Nations aspect relating to war crimes and the gassing of 5,000 Kurds. Britain has a minor but embarrassing problem because Prime Minister Tony Blair is opposed to the death penalty. Human rights associations are becoming agitated over the possibility of Hussein not getting a fair trial - a concept which will surely bring a smile to the former dictator's weary, now shaven face. By climbing out of his rathole and surrendering he has created a legally complicated and politically dangerous situation. Solving it will be as difficult as tap-dancing on eggshells in army boots, but it is the key to Iraq's future.