With the Taiwan presidential election less than three months away, the behaviour of the incumbent, President Chen Shui-bian, and that of the opposition Kuomintang's candidate, Lien Chan, shows just how much things have changed in the last decade. In 1992, about 45 per cent of the population considered themselves Chinese rather than Taiwanese, but now only 9 per cent identify themselves as Chinese. A recent survey by the China Times shows that 50 per cent consider themselves exclusively Taiwanese rather than Chinese. This is a major shift in the political landscape and the trend is likely to continue. That, to a large extent, explains the antics of Mr Chen, who has been playing to growing sentiments of independence by proposing a referendum on the removal of the hundreds of missiles on the mainland coast aimed at Taiwan and the drafting of a new constitution. It also explains why Mr Chen's opponent, Mr Lien, has had to repeatedly reverse himself on these issues, first opposing the president's initiatives and then supporting them. Last week, the KMT went so far as to say that it was now prepared to accept Taiwan independence - rather than eventual reunification with mainland China - as the ultimate choice of the people. Mr Lien on Saturday reversed himself by embracing Mr Chen's formulation that there was 'one country on each side' of the Taiwan Strait. In the past, he had strongly opposed this formula.The last few months have been marked by Mr Chen's vigorous onslaught against the KMT, with the president in effect accusing the opposition of betraying Taiwan by favouring reunification with mainland China. 'Mr Chen has been trying hard to give Mr Lien a 'red hat' and brand him a supporter of the Chinese communists in order to scare the voters away from him,' a KMT spokesman said in explaining the shift in the party's position. 'This is one way to check Mr Chen's attempt.' The KMT's about-turns on crucial matters of principle reflect its awareness of the major shifts in political sentiment on the island. It fears that adherence to a 'one China' policy may cost it the election next March. As a result, there is now a new political consensus in Taiwan, with both the ruling and opposition parties agreeing, in effect, that Taiwan and the mainland are separate countries. Mr Chen, in the meantime, has been enjoying the discomfort of his challenger. On Sunday, he said the electorate should vote for him rather than for 'a parrot'. It is no doubt deeply troubling for Beijing to realise that there is now no major political party in Taiwan that advocates eventual political reunification. However, Chinese officials no doubt realise that Mr Lien is being forced by the exigencies of the election campaign to take these positions and believe that, if elected, his position will still be much more conciliatory than that of Mr Chen. Beijing should also realise that the transformation of the sense of national identity of the people of Taiwan cannot be attributed entirely to four years of rule by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Rather, it is the result of long years of alienation from the mainland fuelled by perceived threats and bullying. In particular, Beijing's opposition to even an observer's role in the World Health Organisation for Taiwan during the height of the Sars outbreak caused many people on the island to doubt Beijing's insistence that is really has their interests at heart. The arrogant mainland attitude was particularly underlined by the callous remark of a Beijing official at a meeting of the world health assembly in Geneva this year, after Taiwan had failed in its attempt to join the WHO. That official, Sha Zukang, said crudely that 'nobody cares' what happens to Taiwan. Actually, even at this late date, it may be possible for the mainland to salvage the situation and improve its standing with the people of Taiwan and, at the same time, put the Chen government in an impossible position. All Beijing has to do is to propose observer status in the WHO for Taiwan, calling it a province of China, a special region, or whatever. With Beijing acting as sponsor, there will be no opposition, and Taiwan will automatically be admitted. The people of Taiwan would certainly be delighted by such a turn of events. It would then be up to the Chen administration to decide either to reject this offer of membership or to accept that Taiwan is, indeed, part of 'one China'. The question is whether Beijing will be flexible enough to take such a step. Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator frankching1@aol.com
