For glimpses of how the future may look, keep an eye on the National Intelligence Council, which does strategic analysis for the US government. The council recently published parts of its '2020 Project' report, which examines the forces that will be shaping the world. The preliminary scenarios are spelled out region by region, but I am not sure what to make of the fact that there is no assessment of where America will be.
The East Asia analysis posits three broad trends shaping the region. First, northeastern and southeastern Asia will develop along divergent paths. 'The countries of the north will become wealthier and more powerful, while the largest states in the south - Indonesia and the Philippines - will become poorer, more populous and more unstable,' it says. Yet, as the two regions become more integrated, the south will become a source of transnational threats to the north.
Second, China will become more powerful and more influential in the region. Third, 'a range of powerful, transnational forces will affect East Asian societies, transforming human aspirations, political attitudes, state-society relations and patterns of governance'.
The analysis highlights nine drivers that will shape the future. They include: first, demographics. Northeast Asian population growth rates will slow and should peak in the next few decades, making long-term economic growth problematic. In contrast, Southeast Asian populations will continue to expand. Even with economic growth, the most populous states could become poorer per capita. This could decrease literacy, which would exacerbate downward economic trends.
Urbanisation will intensify, increasing pressure on infrastructure. Epidemics may result from rising concentrations of people. Migration is also likely to increase as individuals seek economic opportunity among their ethnic communities in other states. This could create political tensions.
Second, strains on natural resources and the environment. Competition for energy supplies is already intense, with China and Japan fighting for an oil pipeline in Russia. The South China Sea is an arena of competition among Southeast Asian states, and pressures will get worse as population growth intensifies demands on food and water supplies.