A leader haunted by history?

The Year of the Goat passing into the Year of the Monkey in a way cyclically marks President Hu Jintao's first year in power. For many, he remains aloof, unrevealing and someone who adheres to correctness in every speech and action. Many wonder what he is really thinking. Will he lead China to a new age of reform and openness, or simply continue along his predecessor's path?

These questions cannot be answered yet. But there is one point which can. Mr Hu is a man extremely conscious of his role and actions in the context of China's modern history. Few realise that, within 20 days of assuming power, he visited Xibaipo, in Hebei province. This was where Mao Zedong stopped briefly on March 23, 1949 to reflect before moving towards the Fragrant Hills to enter Beijing. Mao said: 'Today is the day I go to the capital to take the examination.' Arriving at Xibaipo, Mr Hu said: 'Today this examination continues.'

Mr Hu's overwhelming sense of history dumbfounded Politburo members summoned on November 24 last year to a 'collective study' session covering world history from the 15th century to the present day. This was the first time a crash course in history had been held for top leaders.

Two professors crammed 600 years of history into 90 minutes, covering Portugal, Spain, Holland, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, the former Soviet Union and the United States. The lesson concluded: 'Aside from the Soviet Union, the rest were and are still today strong capitalist countries.' It asked: 'Why have, time and again, small countries become strong and then undefeatable, becoming an empire, only to then deteriorate and collapse? Why, in history, can dominance be maintained for only a century and no more?'

What lessons are there for China? From a Chinese perspective, the rise and fall of great nations and empires is an inevitable cycle. Mr Hu's point was for Politburo members to better understand the causes of both, particularly the falls. He turned the history class into a wake-up call for China's leaders, reminding them that they are in the 21st century. 'To extend one's viewpoint into this time zone is very meaningful,' he said.

It seems that Mr Hu's main concern was to warn against repeating Qing dynasty mistakes of being closed, proud and preoccupied with ceremonial authority, while losing control over the regions. Today's pervasive greed and widespread corruption eating into national coffers has uncomfortable parallels in late Qing history.

This is actually the ninth time Mr Hu has called Politburo members together for crash courses. The lessons have included world economics, China's economic development, world employment trends, and new military changes and developments in the world, among others. It was announced that: 'These study arrangements have deepened recognition and understanding of the relationship between history and reality.'