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SCMP Reporter

GOVERNOR Chris Patten made a crucial move this week in the game of political brinkmanship being played out in the talks with Beijing on political reform for Hong Kong.

   He pledged to present his own electoral blueprint to the Legislative Council for endorsement unless a compromise with China is reached soon.

   Eight substantial issues, ranging from the composition of the 1995 Legco to the voting age, were said to have been tabled for discussion during the last 11 rounds of bilateral negotiations. China, however, has not responded favourably to any of the British proposals.

  It is understandable that the Governor would like to push the blueprint harder before the next two-day session in nine days.

  The two Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet in New York probably on October 1, China's National Day. And there is still a fair chance that the two sides may reach an agreement, at least in principle, before Mr Patten delivers his annual policy address to Legco on October 6.

   Mr Patten's current public relations tactics seem to be a carbon copy of those adopted by the Government in 1991 during the Sino-British row over the Chek Lap Kok airport scheme.

  Then, news stories were planted to leave an impression that Hong Kong was prepared to finance the ambitious project alone, even without Chinese blessing.

   A Memorandum of Understanding on the new airport was eventually reached, though the provisions in it have not been faithfully implemented.

  PARALLELS can be drawn between the present impasse and the situation two years ago. Both the British and local news media have carried comments from unidentified sources that Hong Kong is ready to go it alone, while Mr Patten was still on vacation in Italy. The Governor's latest public statement only serves to attach a human face to the anonymous official remarks that have been in the press for weeks.

   Even if the Patten package is presented to Legco in the form of a bill, there is no guarantee that it will be carried. The councillors passed no less than three different motions in support of the idea of greater democracy during the last legislative year. But it can't be assumed that most legislators would stand by the Governor if he chose to break ranks with China.

  The Liberal Party, for instance, has made it clear that it finds any unilateral decision on the part of the Government unpalatable. The party's proposal that the Governor should first settle preparations for the 1994 District Board polls to allow more time for negotiations with Beijing over the more thorny issue of the 1995 Legco make-up sounds reasonable. This desire to keep both sides talking probably matches the mainstream ''don't rock the boat'' mind-set.

   A recent independent opinion poll, conducted by the academic 1997 Transition Project, indicates that 71 per cent of residents accept that they cannot shape government actions pertinent to their daily life.

   Less than a quarter of the 605 people interviewed last month believed they could influence the Hong Kong Government to varying degrees. Any drastic step by the Governor is likely to reinforce this widespread feeling of political impotence and it could prove disruptive should the pool of residents who consider themselves alienated continue to grow.

   Even if the Governor's initiatives survive Legco, the subsequent elections are likely to be boycotted by some of the viable candidates. I T is conceivable that conservative political groupings might find it advisable to boycott polls run by the Hong Kong authorities. Without the blessing of China, those returned in the 1995 polls would only remain in office for 20 months before the transfer of sovereignty in July, 1997.

   Mr Patten stressed that Beijing would have a lot of explaining to do if it was to dismantle the electoral system installed before the transition. He appeared confident that once his electoral provisions were in place, it would become a fait accompli forthe Special Administrative Region (SAR) Government.

   China apparently thinks otherwise. The recent meetings for the Beijing-appointed Preparatory Working Group for the SAR were held precisely to prepare for a worst-case scenario in which a cold war exists between the two sides in the run-up to 1997.

  Beijing will not be short of advice from its many eager counsellors in Hong Kong on a contingency plan. Many preliminary ideas have already been floated by group members and other Hong Kong advisers hand-picked by Beijing.

  Many aspiring candidates are likely to wait for two more years instead of rushing into elections that are bound to provoke China.

  The Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, headed by Preparatory Working Group member Tsang Yok-shing, was launched as the electoral arm of the main pro-Beijing lobby. So the last thing the party wants is to be regarded as supportive of the Hong Kong Government by associating itself with a local election rejected by China.

  Political factions on the conservative side of the spectrum are also likely to distance themselves from an electoral exercise condemned by China.

   It would be a major embarrassment for Mr Patten if his opponents were able to mount a successful campaign to boycott the elections. The only politicians left in the hustings would be the United Democrats, their allies and a few ambitious independents.

  It would be difficult for any administration to take credit for an election, contested by a small pool of contenders, and perhaps further marred by a deliberately low turnout.

   The Chinese replacement of the system installed by the Governor would be less democratic and far from universally approved of by the people of Hong Kong.

   But, while the Governor may not like to believe it, Beijing may well be able to point to practical pitfalls in the 1995 elections in order to demand a re-start in 1997.



Ballot pitfalls await go-it-alone governor