Brilliant Lucky Owners has Classic Mile at his mercy

It's difficult, bordering on impossible, to envisage anything beating Tony Cruz-trained Lucky Owners in the $8 million Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong Classic Mile at Sha Tin this afternoon.

The rising star is likely to start an odds-on favourite for this Group One race - at a very cramped price - and rightly so. This well-bred son of the late champion sire Danehill is now a potential stallion himself, following his success in the Hong Kong Mile (Gr 1), and that victory against some of the world's best milers makes him clearly the one to beat.

Lucky Owners' current rating is 129 - 17 points clear of The Duke (rated 112) and with more than half the field rated less than 100, it is fair to say he is close to a 'handicapping certainty' today on level terms with his 12 rivals. And to top it off, he drew ideally in gate one, which undoubtedly leaves jockey Felix Coetzee in a supreme position.

The pace factor will have almost no significance because Lucky Owners has the quality to win no matter how the race is run, although the likelihood of him settling in the ideal position is high. He should win and there will probably be more interest in who provides the quinella with him.

If there was going to be an upset, the most likely to provide it would be John Moore's English import Tiber. He cruised to victory in the Fairy King Prawn Handicap on January 18 over 1,600 metres on a yielding track and is on the upgrade. His effortless win in a turf trial earlier this month indicated he has improved further from his latest outing. With leading jockey Douglas Whyte on board there is plenty in his favour.

It is difficult to knock the form of The Duke, another son of Danehill, who has picked up a cheque on seven of eight starts this term. The slight concern is that he has proven more effective over shorter distances, particularly 1,400 metres, but he has been holding his form well against stronger fields and is expected to figure in the finish again.

David Hayes has high hopes for Beethoven, who has steadily risen through the ranks this season from a rating of 52, to his current mark of 97. He is loaded with raw potential, and his last win on January 4 in the Sports Club Golden Jubilee Challenge Cup (2,000 metres) was arguably his finest performance to date. He is expected to run well again, but needs to improve again to hit the frame here.